tam-sam-som-calculator

SKILL.md

Structured market sizing framework for TAM, SAM, and SOM with adaptive questions and citation-backed estimates.

Guides product managers through four adaptive questions covering problem space, geography, industry segments, and target customers to build defensible market size estimates

Generates citation-backed TAM/SAM/SOM analysis with population estimates, industry data sources, and year-by-year projections grounded in Census Bureau, IBISWorld, Statista, and similar sources

Includes optional deterministic calculator script for computing market sizes from population and ARPU inputs, plus validation questions to stress-test assumptions

Highlights common pitfalls (unsourced TAM claims, unrealistic SOM capture rates, ignoring GTM constraints) and emphasizes annual reassessment as markets evolve

Purpose

Guide product managers through calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product idea by asking adaptive, contextually relevant questions. Use this to build defensible market size estimates backed by real-world citations, economic projections, and population data—essential for pitching to investors, securing budget, or validating product-market fit.

This is not a back-of-napkin guess—it's a structured, citation-backed analysis that withstands scrutiny.

Key Concepts

TAM/SAM/SOM Framework

The three-tier market sizing model:

Total Addressable Market (TAM):

The total market demand for a product or service

"If we captured 100% of the market, what's the revenue?"

Broadest possible market (no constraints)