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Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating…
Market Sizing Analysis Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities. Overview Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay). Core Concepts The Three-Tier Market Framework TAM (Total Addressable Market) Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share Defines the universe of potential customers Used for long-term vision and market validation Example: All email marketing software revenue globally SAM (Serviceable Available Market) Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints Represents realistic addressable opportunity Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics Used for financial projections and fundraising Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape When to Use Each Methodology Top-Down Analysis Use when established market research exists Best for mature, well-defined markets Validates market existence and growth Starts with industry reports and narrows down Bottom-Up Analysis Use when targeting specific customer segments Best for new or niche markets Most credible for investors Builds from customer data and pricing Value Theory Use when creating new market categories Best for disruptive innovations Estimates based on value creation Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution Detailed patterns and worked examples Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.
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