startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity

SKILL.md

Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows

Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

Do not use this skill when

The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis

You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

Provide actionable steps and verification.

If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

Define the target market and customer segments

Gather relevant market data

Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology

Validate with top-down analysis

Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters

Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)

Present findings in a formatted report

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Context

Ask the user for essential information:

Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?

Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)

Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)

Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)

Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

Bottom-up calculation frameworks

Top-down validation approaches

Industry-specific templates

Data source recommendations

Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

For B2B/SaaS:

Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)

Estimate number of companies in each segment

Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment

Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

For Consumer/Marketplace:

Define target user demographics

Estimate total addressable users

Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)

Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

For Transactions/E-commerce:

Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)

Determine take rate or margin

Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

Step 4: Gather Market Data

Use available tools to research:

WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data

Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates

Document assumptions clearly

Recommended data sources (from skill):

Government data (Census, BLS)

Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)

Public company filings (10-K reports)

Trade associations

Academic research

Step 5: Top-Down Validation

Validate bottom-up calculation:

Find total market category size from research

Apply geographic filters

Apply segment/product filters

Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

Step 6: Calculate SAM

Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

Geographic: Regions actually serviceable

Product Capability: Features needed to serve

Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt

Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

Formula:

SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

Step 7: Estimate SOM

Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

Conservative Approach (Recommended):

Year 3: 2-3% of SAM

Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

Consider:

Competitive intensity

Available resources (funding, team)

Go-to-market effectiveness

Differentiation strength

Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

Section 1: Executive Summary

Market opportunity in one paragraph

TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

Section 2: Market Definition

Problem being solved

Target customer profile

Geographic scope

Time horizon

Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis

Customer segment breakdown

Segment sizing with sources

TAM calculation with formula

Assumptions documented

Section 4: Top-Down Validation

Industry category and size

Filter application

Validated TAM

Comparison to bottom-up

Section 5: SAM Calculation

Filters applied with rationale

SAM formula and result

Segment-level breakdown

Section 6: SOM Projection

Market share assumptions

Year 3 and Year 5 estimates

Customer count implications

Revenue projections

Section 7: Market Growth

Industry growth rate (CAGR)

Key growth drivers

5-year market evolution

Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks

Public company comparisons

Customer count validation

Competitive context

Section 9: Investment Thesis

Market opportunity assessment

Key positives and risks

Venture-scale potential

Next steps

Step 9: Save Report

Offer to save the report as a markdown file:

Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md

Use Write tool to create file

Confirm file location with user

Tips for Best Results

Do:

Start with bottom-up (most credible)

Always triangulate with top-down

Cite all data sources

Document every assumption

Be conservative on SOM

Compare to public company benchmarks

Explain any data gaps or limitations

Don't:

Rely solely on top-down

Cherry-pick optimistic data

Claim >10% SOM without strong justification

Mix methodologies inappropriately

Ignore competitive context

Skip validation steps

Example Usage

User: /market-opportunity

Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.

What product or service are you analyzing?
→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"

Who are your target customers?
→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"

What's your pricing model?
→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"

[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]

Integration with Other Commands

This command pairs well with:

/financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model

/business-case - Include market sizing in business case

Notes

Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis

Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations

Update annually as market evolves

Conservative estimates build credibility with investors

Limitations

Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.

Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.

Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.