Cb Product Market Fit Validator

SKILL.md

---
name: Cross-border Product-Market Fit Validator
description: Validate product demand in any foreign market before investing in localization, hiring, or launch. Get assumption maps, low-cost experiments, evidence scorecards, and go/no-go decisions — install and run your first PMF test in under 30 seconds.
version: v1.0.0
tags: cross-border, product-market-fit, market-validation, lean-startup
---

# Cross-border Product-Market Fit Validator

## Overview

A validation framework for testing whether a product has real demand in a foreign market before heavy localization, hiring, or launch investment.

This is a pure descriptive OpenClaw skill for overseas expansion planning. It provides frameworks, templates, checklists, decision criteria, and risk reminders. It does **not** execute code, call APIs, access the network, scrape websites, submit forms, make purchases, send messages, or perform any external action.

## When to Use

Use this skill when the user needs structured help with cross-border product-market fit validator in a cross-border or international expansion context.

Typical trigger phrases include:
- product market fit overseas
- validate foreign market demand
- international PMF test
- overseas MVP validation
- market demand experiment

## Target Users

Founders, product managers, growth teams, and expansion leaders evaluating new overseas markets.

## Inputs to Collect

Ask for or infer the following context before producing the final framework:

- Target market or list of candidate markets
- Product, service, category, or business model
- Current business stage and domestic traction, if any
- Target customer segment and purchase context
- Expansion goal, timeline, budget range, and constraints
- Existing assets such as brand story, content, team, channels, customer data, or partners
- Known risks, assumptions, compliance concerns, and decision deadlines

If important inputs are missing, state the assumptions clearly and provide a version that can be refined later.

## Workflow

1. Map the core overseas assumptions: customer pain, urgency, willingness to pay, trust requirements, channel reachability, competitive alternatives, and operational feasibility.
2. Choose the lowest-cost validation method for each assumption, such as interviews, concierge test, landing page, waitlist, paid traffic probe, prototype demo, or partner pilot.
3. Define evidence quality levels so the team distinguishes compliments, clicks, deposits, repeat usage, referrals, and paid conversion.
4. Create a validation scorecard that combines qualitative insight, behavioral evidence, acquisition cost, retention signal, and objections.
5. Make a go, no-go, narrow, or iterate recommendation with the next test required before major investment.

## Output Modules

### Assumption map
- Purpose: turn the user's market context into a structured planning component.
- Include: assumptions, recommended actions, decision criteria, and questions that require local validation.
- Output style: concise tables, checklists, and bullet-point rationale rather than generic advice.
### Demand-signal ladder
- Purpose: turn the user's market context into a structured planning component.
- Include: assumptions, recommended actions, decision criteria, and questions that require local validation.
- Output style: concise tables, checklists, and bullet-point rationale rather than generic advice.
### MVP and landing-page experiment menu
- Purpose: turn the user's market context into a structured planning component.
- Include: assumptions, recommended actions, decision criteria, and questions that require local validation.
- Output style: concise tables, checklists, and bullet-point rationale rather than generic advice.
### Interview and survey guide
- Purpose: turn the user's market context into a structured planning component.
- Include: assumptions, recommended actions, decision criteria, and questions that require local validation.
- Output style: concise tables, checklists, and bullet-point rationale rather than generic advice.
### Evidence scoring rubric
- Purpose: turn the user's market context into a structured planning component.
- Include: assumptions, recommended actions, decision criteria, and questions that require local validation.
- Output style: concise tables, checklists, and bullet-point rationale rather than generic advice.
### Go/no-go decision framework
- Purpose: turn the user's market context into a structured planning component.
- Include: assumptions, recommended actions, decision criteria, and questions that require local validation.
- Output style: concise tables, checklists, and bullet-point rationale rather than generic advice.

## Output Format

Return a structured response with these sections:

1. **Input Summary** — what the user provided and what assumptions are being made.
2. **Strategic Diagnosis** — key opportunity, constraint, and uncertainty analysis for the overseas context.
3. **Framework Output** — the main tables, matrices, checklists, templates, or playbooks generated by this skill.
4. **Market Adaptation Notes** — what should change by region, language, channel, customer expectation, or operating model.
5. **Risks and Validation Tasks** — assumptions to test, professional review needs, and red flags.
6. **Next Actions** — 5–10 practical steps the user can take manually.

## Example Prompts

Try these real-world scenarios to see what this skill can produce:

**Prompt 1: India Demand Validation**
> "We have a mobile payment app that works well in Southeast Asia. We want to validate whether there is real demand in India before investing in localization. Our budget for validation is $5,000 and we have 4 weeks."
> → Output: Assumption map with 7 key risk areas (pain urgency, willingness to pay, UPI ecosystem fit, trust in foreign brand, regulatory barriers, channel reachability, competitive moat vs Paytm/Google Pay), recommended validation methods (landing page with paid traffic + 20 structured interviews), evidence scoring rubric (demonstrated intent with email capture = L3, scheduled call = L4, deposit = L5), go/no-go threshold guide.

**Prompt 2: B2B SaaS Germany Entry**
> "We are a US B2B SaaS project management tool. We see 200 free signups/month from Germany but almost no paid conversions. Is there real PMF in Germany or is this a false signal?"
> → Output: Demand signal ladder analysis (200 signups = L2 curiosity signal, 0 conversions = red flag), qualitative interview guide for German B2B buyers (question protocols covering decision process, data residency concerns, integration needs, price expectations), competitor alternatives map (Monday.com DE, Jira DE, Notion DE), recommended 2-week concierge test with 10 German prospects, specific objections to test (GDPR compliance, German-language documentation, local data center).

**Prompt 3: Brazil Ecommerce Assumption Mapping**
> "We want to enter Brazil with our fashion subscription box. We have never done business in South America. What are the biggest assumptions we need to validate?"
> → Output: Prioritized assumption map for Brazil ecommerce (logistics reliability in SP vs remote states, import duty cost burden, payment culture — boleto vs credit card, trust in subscription vs one-time purchase, customer acquisition cost via Facebook/Instagram), lowest-cost experiments per assumption (logistics test: ship 10 sample boxes to friends in BR, cost ~$500), evidence quality definitions, timeline recommendation for a 6-week validation sprint.

## Getting Started

👋 **cb-product-market-fit-validator installed!**

I help you validate whether your product actually works in a new market — before you spend money on localization, hiring, and inventory.

Try this to get started:
> "I want to validate [product] in [market]. My budget for validation is [$X] and I have [Y weeks]. Help me design the experiments."

Or just describe what you're selling and where you're thinking of expanding.

## Safety and Limitations

Validation frameworks reduce uncertainty but cannot guarantee product success or investment outcomes.

Additional limitations:

- No professional legal, tax, financial, medical, employment, investment, or compliance advice.
- No guarantee of market success, conversion improvement, legal compliance, or platform acceptance.
- Verify local laws, platform policies, consumer expectations, and current market facts with qualified professionals and reliable sources.
- Avoid stereotyping cultures or users; treat all cultural observations as hypotheses requiring local validation.

## Acceptance Criteria

- Lists key demand, channel, price, and trust assumptions
- Provides low-cost validation experiments
- Includes qualitative and quantitative evidence criteria
- Defines go/no-go/iterate decisions
- Warns against vanity metrics
- Provides structured, market-aware outputs rather than generic overseas expansion advice.
- Includes explicit assumptions, evidence gaps, and validation steps.
- Stays pure descriptive with no code execution, API calls, browsing, network access, or external side effects.


## Usage Scenarios

| # | User Input | Expected Output |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | "We have strong PMF in the US for our project management tool. Design a validation experiment for the German market." | Experiment plan: (1) Landing-page smoke test with German copy + Google Ads, (2) 15 customer-discovery interviews with German PMs (interview guide included), (3) Sean Ellis survey localized. Success criteria: 40%+ "very disappointed" threshold. |
| 2 | "Analyze our German pilot results: 200 sign-ups, 12% conversion to paid, NPS 18. Is this PMF?" | PMF assessment: 12% conversion is below US benchmark (22%). NPS 18 is low. Customer interviews reveal feature gaps around GDPR compliance and German-language invoice formats. Verdict: not yet PMF; 3 specific fixes recommended. |
| 3 | "Compare PMF signals across our 4 international pilots: UK, Australia, Germany, and Mexico." | Radar chart comparison across: activation rate, retention D30, NPS, support-ticket volume, and expansion revenue. Mexico shows strongest early signals (despite lowest marketing spend). Recommends doubling down on Mexico. |


### Scenario 2: 想出海的产品怎么知道老外会不会买
**User input:** "我工厂做了个智能水杯，在国内卖不动了。想在亚马逊卖但不知道美国人会不会喜欢。怎么低成本验证？"
**Expected output:** 跨境电商产品验真方法——第一步：平台验证（在亚马逊美国站前台搜同类产品看有没有评价：如果竞品评价<100条说明这是个还没有验证需求的新品类，评价>500说明市场已存在但竞争激烈）；第二步：社交媒体验证（在TikTok搜#SmartWaterBottle相关话题看播放量和讨论度、关注的话题是否在涨）；第三步：视频验证（在YouTube搜产品类目关键词看有没有第三方评测视频及其数据分析评论区的真实吐槽）；第四步：最低成本测试（在亚马逊发50个样品给测评人换真实评价，或做一个简单的预购页面用Facebook广告推2天测试点击率）。关键工具：AMZScout/Keepa/卖家精灵+Google Trends。