@diagnostikon

executes statistical arbitrage on kalshi cpi bin markets by comparing cleveland fed nowcast probabilities against market prices, trading when divergence exceeds configurable thresholds. defaults to dry-run mode.

polymarket-btc-weekend-volatility-trader exploits first-passage probability mispricing in bitcoin weekend threshold markets by applying semantic correction, entry timing windows, and halving cycle volatility regimes to size positions without external apis.

kalshi-f1-elimination-trader identifies mathematically eliminated f1 drivers still priced above zero on kalshi markets and sells no positions. strategy relies on static championship data, entry edge thresholds, and conviction-based sizing.

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the post-merge deflation thesis. ETH burns ~0.5% of supply annually via EIP-1559, creating structural upward pressur...

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on central bank decisions, interest rates, inflation prints, and Fed/ECB/Riksbank policy moves. Exploits three compoundi...