startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

SKILL.md

Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

Working on financial projections tasks or workflows

Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

The task is unrelated to financial projections

You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

Provide actionable steps and verification.

If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

Cohort-based revenue projections

Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)

Headcount planning by role

Monthly cash flow analysis

Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)

Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model:

Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)

Pricing structure (tiers, average price)

Target customer segments

Starting Point:

Current MRR/ARR (if any)

Current customer count

Current team size

Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions:

Expected monthly customer acquisition

Customer retention/churn rate

Average contract value (ACV)

Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions:

Gross margin or COGS %

S&M budget or CAC target

Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding:

Planned fundraising (amount, timing)

Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

Revenue modeling approaches

Cost structure templates

Headcount planning guidance

Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track:

New customers acquired

Existing customers retained (apply churn)

Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)

Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

Project:

Monthly detail for Year 1-2

Quarterly detail for Year 3

Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)

Payment processing (% of revenue)

Variable customer support

Third-party services

Target gross margin:

SaaS: 75-85%

Marketplace: 60-70%

E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)

Sales team compensation

Marketing programs

Tools and software

Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D)

Engineering team

Product management

Design

Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A)

Executive team

Finance, legal, HR

Office and facilities

Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:

Roles by stage

Compensation benchmarks

Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role:

Title and department

Start date (month/quarter)

Base salary

Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)

Equity grant

Track departmental ratios:

Engineering: 40-50% of team

Sales & Marketing: 25-35%

G&A: 10-15%

Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

Include Funding Events:

Timing of raises

Amount raised

Use of proceeds

Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics:

CAC (S&M spend / new customers)

LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)

LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)

CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics:

Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0

Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5

Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics:

Monthly burn rate

Runway in months

Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (P10):

New customers: -30% vs. base

Churn: +20% vs. base

Pricing: -15% vs. base

CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (P50):

Most likely assumptions

Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (P90):

New customers: +30% vs. base

Churn: -20% vs. base

Pricing: +15% vs. base

CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

Section 1: Executive Summary

3-5 year financial snapshot

Key metrics at scale

Funding requirements

Section 2: Model Assumptions

Revenue model and pricing

Growth assumptions

Cost structure assumptions

Headcount plan summary

Section 3: Revenue Projections
Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|

Section 4: Cost Breakdown

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |

Section 5: Headcount Plan

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |

Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|

Section 7: Key Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |

Section 8: Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |

Section 9: Funding Requirements

Amount needed

Use of proceeds breakdown

Milestones to achieve

Expected valuation impact

Section 10: Validation

Sanity checks performed

Benchmark comparisons

Risk factors

Assumptions to monitor

Step 10: Save Model

Offer to save as markdown file:

Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md

Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets

Provide formulas for key calculations

Financial Model Best Practices

Do:

Use cohort-based revenue model

Include 3 scenarios

Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)

Calculate key metrics

Validate against benchmarks

Document all assumptions

Show cash flow and runway

Include fundraising milestones

Don't:

Be overly optimistic on growth

Underestimate costs

Forget fully-loaded compensation

Ignore cash timing

Skip scenario analysis

Use static headcount

Forget to validate

Integration with Other Commands

Pairs well with:

/market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling

/business-case - Include projections in business case

Example Usage

User: /financial-projections

Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.

What's your business model?
→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"

Current state?
→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"

Growth assumptions?
→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"

[Claude builds complete model with all sections]

Notes

Model building takes 45-90 minutes

Results in comprehensive planning tool

Update monthly to track vs. actuals

Share with investors and board

Use for fundraising decks

Basis for budget and hiring decisions

Limitations

Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.

Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.

Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.