signal-postmortem

SKILL.md

Signal Postmortem

Overview

Signal Postmortem records and analyzes the outcomes of trading signals generated by the edge pipeline, screeners, and other skills. It compares predicted edge direction against 5-day and 20-day realized returns, categorizes outcomes (true positive, false positive, missed opportunity, regime mismatch), and generates feedback for edge-signal-aggregator weight adjustments and skill improvement backlog entries.

When to Use

After a trade has been closed and you want to record the outcome

When reviewing a batch of signals that have reached their holding period (5 or 20 days)

To identify systematic false positive patterns from specific skills

To generate feedback for edge-signal-aggregator weight calibration

When building a skill improvement backlog from decision quality metrics

For periodic (weekly/monthly) signal quality audits

Prerequisites