risk-management

SKILL.md

Risk Management

Last updated: 2026-03-09 20:08 UTC
Active patterns: 54
Total samples: 8500
Confidence threshold: 60%

Core Principles

These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:

Rule
Success Rate
Samples
Confidence
Seen

Trade frequency inversely correlates wit...
95%
473
50%
1x

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o...
95%
58
45%
1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...
92%
183
90%
1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...
92%
200
95%
1x

Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h max...
90%
84
45%
1x

Closing LONG positions quickly to pivot ...
88%
50
95%
1x

Trade frequency must be inversely propor...
88%
109
45%
1x

Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ...
88%
383
99%
2x

In uniformly bearish markets, 'low-sever...
85%
49
85%
1x

Validation checks passing ('validation p...
85%
200
95%
1x

High trade frequency (189-200 trades/24h...
85%
389
95%
1x

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o...
85%
113
95%
1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...
80%
49
85%
1x

Self-reflective position management (jou...
80%
48
80%
1x

Forum/social sentiment filtering provide...
80%
24
95%
1x

Closing SHORT positions 'to lock in gain...
78%
48
85%
1x

Low leverage (2x) on SHORT positions wit...
75%
48
85%
1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...
75%
172
90%
1x

Low trade frequency (<40 trades/24h) pre...
75%
48
95%
1x

In uniformly bearish markets, SHORT-bias...
75%
3
41%
1x

Avoid momentum-following strategies in m...
75%
33
95%
1x

Self-reflective position management (rec...
75%
27
95%
1x

Contrarian strategies underperform in mi...
70%
16
82%
1x

Cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h max...
70%
113
95%
1x

Cap trade frequency at 16 trades/24h max...
67%
86
65%
1x

In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily m...
67%
146
95%
1x

Self-reflective position management (jou...
65%
65
45%
1x

Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ...
50%
337
90%
1x

High trade frequency (165-172 trades/24h...
50%
337
90%
1x

High trade frequency (183 trades/24h) ca...
50%
366
90%
1x

In uniformly bearish markets with mild d...
50%
6
57%
1x

Validation checks passing ('all checks p...
41%
998
94%
2x

Closing positions due to 'conflicting ti...
35%
20
80%
1x

Trade frequency inversely correlates wit...
33%
86
65%
1x

Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.14 to ...
30%
131
90%
1x

Cutting small losses quickly (-$38 on SO...
30%
147
95%
1x

Contrarian LONG entries in bullish marke...
30%
6
62%
1x

Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati...
30%
708
99%
3x

Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati...
25%
165
90%
1x

Validation checks passing ('all checks p...
25%
501
95%
1x

High concentration warnings (127% of equ...
25%
166
95%
1x

Multi-timeframe alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) ...
15%
298
50%
1x

Low trade frequency (<20 trades/24h) in ...
15%
25
95%
1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...
15%
166
95%
1x

2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio con...
15%
58
45%
1x

2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAI...
10%
31
95%
1x

Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.01 to ...
5%
152
90%
1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2...
0%
334
50%
1x

High leverage (4x-5x) with 'optimal' ris...
0%
132
50%
1x

Self-reflective position management (jou...
0%
62
65%
1x

Low-frequency LONG entries in a bearish ...
0%
4
43%
1x

Contrarian LONG entries in uniformly bea...
0%
9
53%
1x

Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% eq...
0%
27
90%
1x

Contrarian LONG entries in bearish marke...
0%
11
67%
1x

Top Risk Rules

Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bullish markets: 8 trades = $0.00, 30-34 trades = -$46 to -$51, 120-166 trades = -$41 to -$135

Success rate: 95%

Based on 473 observations

Confidence: 50% (seen 1 times)

First identified: 2026-01-28

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +5%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.

Success rate: 95%

Based on 58 observations

Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)

First identified: 2026-03-04

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains SHORT bias in bearish markets and uses validation to confirm market direction alignment.

Success rate: 92%

Based on 183 observations

Confidence: 90% (seen 1 times)

First identified: 2026-01-31

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction aligns with position bias and agent maintains high trade frequency (150-200/24h).

Success rate: 92%

Based on 200 observations

Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)

First identified: 2026-02-01

Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum in strongly bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. qwen35_skill_aware's 7 trades (+$250.52) vs gptoss_agentic's 28 trades (-$435.19).

Success rate: 90%

Based on 84 observations

Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)

First identified: 2026-03-04

General Guidelines

Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade

Use stop-losses on every position

Reduce position size in high volatility regimes

Don't add to losing positions

Confidence Guide

Confidence
Interpretation

90%+
High confidence - strong historical support

70-90%
Moderate confidence - use with other signals

60-70%
Low confidence - consider as one input

<60%
Experimental - needs more data

This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.