ln-201-opportunity-discoverer

SKILL.md

Paths: File paths (references/, ../ln-*) are relative to this skill directory.

Opportunity Discoverer

Type: L3 Worker
Category: 2XX Planning

Traffic-First approach to finding next growth direction for existing product.

Core Philosophy

Anti-pattern: Idea → Surveys → Product → "where's traffic?"
Correct: Traffic → Niche → MVP → Launch under existing demand

The 90% Developer Bug
Most fail because they:

Invent idea with no analogs

Ask 5 people "would you pay?" (they say yes for a hot dog)

Build product with round sum

Launch with "now let's set up traffic"

Discover: no traffic exists, never did

No marketer will build funnel for what cold traffic doesn't buy.

Traffic-First Principles

#
Principle
Anti-pattern

1
Traffic exists BEFORE product
Building then searching for traffic

2
No surveys — measure real search demand
Asking "would you buy?"

3
Existing demand — launch under what people search
Creating new category

4
One channel, one idea — no spreading
Testing 5 channels at once

5
KILL early — fail fast, don't waste time
Scoring all ideas equally

Supporting Methodology

Marc Andreessen (pmarca):

"Validate market at practical level — go get paying customers to demonstrate market exists."

Sam Altman (YC):

"Who desperately needs the product? Best answer is going after large part of small market."
"Test idea by launching or trying to sell — get letter of intent before code."

Purpose & Scope

Discover growth direction BEFORE Epic creation

Filter ideas through evidence-first KILL funnel

Output: one recommended idea + one traffic channel

Position: before ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)

Runtime Contract

MANDATORY READ: Load references/planning_worker_runtime_contract.md, references/coordinator_summary_contract.md

Runtime family: planning-worker-runtime

Identifier:

discovery work item identifier

Phases:

PHASE_0_CONFIG

PHASE_1_INPUT_PROCESSING

PHASE_2_KILL_FUNNEL

PHASE_3_RANK_SURVIVORS

PHASE_4_WRITE_DISCOVERY_REPORT

PHASE_5_WRITE_SUMMARY

PHASE_6_SELF_CHECK

Summary contract:

summary_kind=opportunity-discovery-worker

standalone mode may return the summary without artifact persistence

managed mode writes the same JSON to summaryArtifactPath

default managed artifact path pattern: .hex-skills/runtime-artifacts/runs/{parent_run_id}/opportunity-discovery-worker/ln-201--{identifier}.json

When to Use

Use this skill when:

Product exists, seeking next growth direction

Have 3-10 potential ideas/niches

Want to validate opportunity before committing

Need to choose ONE channel to focus on

Do NOT use when:

No product context (greenfield startup)

Already have validated direction (skip to ln-210)

Prioritizing existing Stories (use ln-230)

Input Parameters

Parameter
Required
Description
Default

ideas
No
Comma-separated list
-

context
No
Product description for generation
-

strict
No
Strict KILL thresholds
true

Input modes:

ideas="idea1, idea2, idea3" — evaluate list

context="SaaS for X" — generate ideas from product

Both — generate + add user ideas

KILL Funnel Pipeline

Ideas do not go through 4 separate research-heavy passes anymore. Each idea gets one bundled evidence pass first.

Idea → [Evidence bundle: traffic + demand + competition + revenue]
          ↓
      [Hard kill matrix]
          ↓
     [Interest gate]
          ↓
      [MVP gate]
          ↓
       SURVIVOR

Evidence Bundle (single research pass)

Question: Is there enough external evidence to justify deeper evaluation?

Research bundle:

WebSearch: "[idea] how people find solutions"
WebSearch: "[idea] search volume {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] competitors {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] pricing SaaS"

Extract four signals in one pass:

Traffic channel: Where do people actively look for this solution?

Demand: Search volume, trend direction, or strong community pain signal

Competition: Competitor count and ocean type

Revenue: Plausible price band and willingness to pay pattern

Traffic channel examples:

Channel
Signal
Best for

Search/SEO
People Google "[problem] solution"
Info products, tools

YouTube
Tutorial searches exist
Education, how-to

Marketplaces
Category exists (ProductHunt, AppStore)
Apps, plugins

Communities
Active subreddits, forums
Niche products

Paid Ads
Competitors running ads
Proven demand

Outbound
Clear ICP, reachable
B2B high-ticket

Demand thresholds:

Volume
Verdict

>10K/month
Strong demand

1K-10K/month
Viable niche

<1K/month
Weak unless compensated by very strong niche signal

Competition thresholds:

Competitors
Index
Ocean
Verdict

0
1
Blue
Opportunity if demand is real

1-2
2
Emerging
Best entry point

3-5
3
Growing
Differentiation needed

6-10
4
Mature
Hard but possible

>10
5
Red
Often kill-worthy

Revenue thresholds:

ARPU
Market type
Viability

>$100/user/mo
Enterprise
High margin

$50-100
Professional
Good

$20-50
Prosumer
Viable

$5-20
Consumer
Volume needed

<$5
Ad-supported
Usually not worth it

Hard Kill Matrix

Kill immediately when any hard-stop condition is true:

no identifiable traffic channel

demand clearly below viable threshold with no compensating niche signal

competition index = 5 and no clear wedge

expected revenue below $20/user for a small-team business

Record the kill reason and stop analysis for that idea.

Personal Interest

Question: Will you enjoy building this?

Method: AskUserQuestion — rate 1-5

Rate your interest in building [idea]:
1 = Meh, would do for money only
2 = Low interest
3 = Neutral
4 = Interested
5 = Excited, would build for free

Why this matters:

Low interest = burnout in 3 months

High interest = sustained motivation through hard times

You'll spend 2+ years on this

When to ask: Only for ideas that survive the external evidence bundle.

KILL if: Score 1-2 — you'll quit before PMF.

Output: Score 1-5

MVP-ability

Question: Can you launch in 4 weeks?

Assessment:

Factor
Question
Red flag

Tech
Existing skills or need to learn?
New stack

Dependencies
External APIs, partners needed?
Waiting on others

Content
Significant content creation?
Months of writing

Regulations
Legal/compliance requirements?
Licenses, approvals

Team
Solo or need to hire?
Can't start alone

Time estimates:

Weeks
Complexity
Verdict

1-2
Solo, existing skills
Best

2-4
Minor learning curve
Good

4-8
Some new tech
Acceptable

>8
Significant infrastructure
KILL

When to assess: Only for ideas that survive external evidence + interest gate.

KILL if: >8 weeks to MVP — too slow to validate.

Output: Weeks estimate + blockers

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Processing (2 min)

Parse input:

If ideas: split comma-separated list

If context: generate 5-7 ideas via WebSearch

If both: combine

Validate count:

Minimum: 3 ideas

Maximum: 10 ideas

Create output directory:

mkdir -p docs/reference/research/

Output: Idea queue (3-10 items) and checkpoint for PHASE_1_INPUT_PROCESSING

Phase 2: KILL Funnel (per idea)

Process each idea through one bundled evidence pass, then the personal filters only for survivors:

FOR each idea:
    Build evidence bundle:
        traffic + demand + competition + revenue

    Apply hard kill matrix
        IF failed → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Ask Interest
        IF score 1-2 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Assess MVP-ability
        IF >8 weeks → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    → SURVIVOR: add to survivors list

Token efficiency:

Process ONE idea at a time

One research bundle per idea instead of four separate research phases

KILL early = no interest prompt, no MVP assessment

Clear context after each idea

Phase 3: Rank Survivors (2 min)

If survivors exist:

Calculate composite score:

Score = Demand_score + (6 - Competition_index) + Revenue_score + Interest + MVP_score

Sort by score descending

Select TOP recommendation

If no survivors:

Report: "All ideas killed. Rethink direction."

Show KILL log for learning

Phase 4: Output (2 min)

Generate: docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md

Also emit structured runtime summary:

schema_version

summary_kind=opportunity-discovery-worker

run_id

identifier

producer_skill=ln-201

produced_at

payload with input_mode, ideas_analyzed, generated_ideas, survivors_count, killed_count, top_recommendation, report_path, warnings

Structure:

# Opportunity Discovery: [Date]

## Summary
- Ideas analyzed: X
- Survivors: Y
- Killed: Z

## TOP RECOMMENDATION

**Idea:** [Name]
**Channel:** [Primary channel]
**Why:** [2-3 sentence rationale]

### Key metrics:
- Demand: [volume]/month
- Competition: [Index] [Ocean type]
- Revenue: $[X]/user
- MVP: [X] weeks

## Survivors Table

| Idea | Channel | Demand | Competition | Revenue | Interest | MVP | Score |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|---------|----------|-----|-------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## KILL Log

| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| ... | ... | ... |

## Next Steps
1. Create Epic with ln-210 for top recommendation
2. Focus on [channel] as primary acquisition
3. Target MVP in [X] weeks

Time-Box

Ideas
Estimated time

3
15-20 min

5
25-35 min

10
50-70 min

Note: KILL funnel is faster than full scoring — bad ideas die early.

Integration

Position in workflow:

Product exists
     ↓
ln-201 (Opportunity Discovery) ← THIS SKILL
     ↓
ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)
     ↓
ln-220 (Story Coordinator)

Dependencies:

WebSearch (all filters except Interest)

AskUserQuestion (Interest filter)

Write, Bash (output)

Critical Rules

Traffic first — no traffic channel = no analysis

Bundle evidence once — do not run separate research-heavy phases if one pass can answer traffic, demand, competition, and revenue

KILL immediately — don't score dead ideas

One recommendation — avoid paralysis

No surveys — real search data only

Interest matters — ask only for externally viable ideas

MVP speed — slow launch = slow learning

Example Usage

With ideas:

ln-201-opportunity-discoverer ideas="AI writing tool, code review bot, translation API"

With context:

ln-201-opportunity-discoverer context="B2B developer tools SaaS"

Example output:

# Opportunity Discovery: 2026-01-29

## TOP RECOMMENDATION

**Idea:** Code review bot
**Channel:** SEO (developers search "code review tool")
**Why:** Growing demand (15K/mo), emerging market (3 competitors),
$50/user pricing proven, can MVP in 3 weeks with existing skills.

## KILL Log

| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| AI writing | Competition | Red Ocean (25+ competitors) |
| Translation API | Revenue | Commoditized, <$10/user |

Definition of Done

 Ideas brainstormed from product context and market signals

 Evidence bundle collected for each idea before kill decisions

 Hard kill matrix applied before interest and MVP checks

 Survivors scored and ranked

 Discovery document generated at docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md

 TOP RECOMMENDATION identified with channel + rationale

 KILL Log documents all eliminated ideas with reasons

 Structured opportunity-discovery-worker summary returned

 Summary artifact written when summaryArtifactPath is provided

Reference Files

File
Purpose

filter_criteria.md
KILL thresholds for all filters

channel_analysis.md
Traffic channel identification

discovery_template.md
Output markdown template

MANDATORY READ: Load references/research_tool_fallback.md

Version: 2.0.0
Last Updated: 2026-01-29