Discovers growth opportunities using Traffic-First KILL funnel. Use when searching for next product direction with validated demand.
Paths: File paths (references/, ../ln-*) are relative to this skill directory.
Opportunity Discoverer
Type: L3 Worker
Category: 2XX Planning
Traffic-First approach to finding next growth direction for existing product.
Core Philosophy
Anti-pattern: Idea → Surveys → Product → "where's traffic?"
Correct: Traffic → Niche → MVP → Launch under existing demand
The 90% Developer Bug
Most fail because they:
Invent idea with no analogs
Ask 5 people "would you pay?" (they say yes for a hot dog)
Build product with round sum
Launch with "now let's set up traffic"
Discover: no traffic exists, never did
No marketer will build funnel for what cold traffic doesn't buy.
Traffic-First Principles
#
Principle
Anti-pattern
1
Traffic exists BEFORE product
Building then searching for traffic
2
No surveys — measure real search demand
Asking "would you buy?"
3
Existing demand — launch under what people search
Creating new category
4
One channel, one idea — no spreading
Testing 5 channels at once
5
KILL early — fail fast, don't waste time
Scoring all ideas equally
Supporting Methodology
Marc Andreessen (pmarca):
"Validate market at practical level — go get paying customers to demonstrate market exists."
Sam Altman (YC):
"Who desperately needs the product? Best answer is going after large part of small market."
"Test idea by launching or trying to sell — get letter of intent before code."
Purpose & Scope
Discover growth direction BEFORE Epic creation
Filter ideas through evidence-first KILL funnel
Output: one recommended idea + one traffic channel
Position: before ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)
Runtime Contract
MANDATORY READ: Load references/planning_worker_runtime_contract.md, references/coordinator_summary_contract.md
Runtime family: planning-worker-runtime
Identifier:
discovery work item identifier
Phases:
PHASE_0_CONFIG
PHASE_1_INPUT_PROCESSING
PHASE_2_KILL_FUNNEL
PHASE_3_RANK_SURVIVORS
PHASE_4_WRITE_DISCOVERY_REPORT
PHASE_5_WRITE_SUMMARY
PHASE_6_SELF_CHECK
Summary contract:
summary_kind=opportunity-discovery-worker
standalone mode may return the summary without artifact persistence
managed mode writes the same JSON to summaryArtifactPath
default managed artifact path pattern: .hex-skills/runtime-artifacts/runs/{parent_run_id}/opportunity-discovery-worker/ln-201--{identifier}.json
When to Use
Use this skill when:
Product exists, seeking next growth direction
Have 3-10 potential ideas/niches
Want to validate opportunity before committing
Need to choose ONE channel to focus on
Do NOT use when:
No product context (greenfield startup)
Already have validated direction (skip to ln-210)
Prioritizing existing Stories (use ln-230)
Input Parameters
Parameter
Required
Description
Default
ideas
No
Comma-separated list
-
context
No
Product description for generation
-
strict
No
Strict KILL thresholds
true
Input modes:
ideas="idea1, idea2, idea3" — evaluate list
context="SaaS for X" — generate ideas from product
Both — generate + add user ideas
KILL Funnel Pipeline
Ideas do not go through 4 separate research-heavy passes anymore. Each idea gets one bundled evidence pass first.
Idea → [Evidence bundle: traffic + demand + competition + revenue]
↓
[Hard kill matrix]
↓
[Interest gate]
↓
[MVP gate]
↓
SURVIVOR
Evidence Bundle (single research pass)
Question: Is there enough external evidence to justify deeper evaluation?
Research bundle:
WebSearch: "[idea] how people find solutions"
WebSearch: "[idea] search volume {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] competitors {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] pricing SaaS"
Extract four signals in one pass:
Traffic channel: Where do people actively look for this solution?
Demand: Search volume, trend direction, or strong community pain signal
Competition: Competitor count and ocean type
Revenue: Plausible price band and willingness to pay pattern
Traffic channel examples:
Channel
Signal
Best for
Search/SEO
People Google "[problem] solution"
Info products, tools
YouTube
Tutorial searches exist
Education, how-to
Marketplaces
Category exists (ProductHunt, AppStore)
Apps, plugins
Communities
Active subreddits, forums
Niche products
Paid Ads
Competitors running ads
Proven demand
Outbound
Clear ICP, reachable
B2B high-ticket
Demand thresholds:
Volume
Verdict
>10K/month
Strong demand
1K-10K/month
Viable niche
<1K/month
Weak unless compensated by very strong niche signal
Competition thresholds:
Competitors
Index
Ocean
Verdict
0
1
Blue
Opportunity if demand is real
1-2
2
Emerging
Best entry point
3-5
3
Growing
Differentiation needed
6-10
4
Mature
Hard but possible
>10
5
Red
Often kill-worthy
Revenue thresholds:
ARPU
Market type
Viability
>$100/user/mo
Enterprise
High margin
$50-100
Professional
Good
$20-50
Prosumer
Viable
$5-20
Consumer
Volume needed
<$5
Ad-supported
Usually not worth it
Hard Kill Matrix
Kill immediately when any hard-stop condition is true:
no identifiable traffic channel
demand clearly below viable threshold with no compensating niche signal
competition index = 5 and no clear wedge
expected revenue below $20/user for a small-team business
Record the kill reason and stop analysis for that idea.
Personal Interest
Question: Will you enjoy building this?
Method: AskUserQuestion — rate 1-5
Rate your interest in building [idea]:
1 = Meh, would do for money only
2 = Low interest
3 = Neutral
4 = Interested
5 = Excited, would build for free
Why this matters:
Low interest = burnout in 3 months
High interest = sustained motivation through hard times
You'll spend 2+ years on this
When to ask: Only for ideas that survive the external evidence bundle.
KILL if: Score 1-2 — you'll quit before PMF.
Output: Score 1-5
MVP-ability
Question: Can you launch in 4 weeks?
Assessment:
Factor
Question
Red flag
Tech
Existing skills or need to learn?
New stack
Dependencies
External APIs, partners needed?
Waiting on others
Content
Significant content creation?
Months of writing
Regulations
Legal/compliance requirements?
Licenses, approvals
Team
Solo or need to hire?
Can't start alone
Time estimates:
Weeks
Complexity
Verdict
1-2
Solo, existing skills
Best
2-4
Minor learning curve
Good
4-8
Some new tech
Acceptable
>8
Significant infrastructure
KILL
When to assess: Only for ideas that survive external evidence + interest gate.
KILL if: >8 weeks to MVP — too slow to validate.
Output: Weeks estimate + blockers
Workflow
Phase 1: Input Processing (2 min)
Parse input:
If ideas: split comma-separated list
If context: generate 5-7 ideas via WebSearch
If both: combine
Validate count:
Minimum: 3 ideas
Maximum: 10 ideas
Create output directory:
mkdir -p docs/reference/research/
Output: Idea queue (3-10 items) and checkpoint for PHASE_1_INPUT_PROCESSING
Phase 2: KILL Funnel (per idea)
Process each idea through one bundled evidence pass, then the personal filters only for survivors:
FOR each idea:
Build evidence bundle:
traffic + demand + competition + revenue
Apply hard kill matrix
IF failed → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea
Ask Interest
IF score 1-2 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea
Assess MVP-ability
IF >8 weeks → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea
→ SURVIVOR: add to survivors list
Token efficiency:
Process ONE idea at a time
One research bundle per idea instead of four separate research phases
KILL early = no interest prompt, no MVP assessment
Clear context after each idea
Phase 3: Rank Survivors (2 min)
If survivors exist:
Calculate composite score:
Score = Demand_score + (6 - Competition_index) + Revenue_score + Interest + MVP_score
Sort by score descending
Select TOP recommendation
If no survivors:
Report: "All ideas killed. Rethink direction."
Show KILL log for learning
Phase 4: Output (2 min)
Generate: docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md
Also emit structured runtime summary:
schema_version
summary_kind=opportunity-discovery-worker
run_id
identifier
producer_skill=ln-201
produced_at
payload with input_mode, ideas_analyzed, generated_ideas, survivors_count, killed_count, top_recommendation, report_path, warnings
Structure:
# Opportunity Discovery: [Date]
## Summary
- Ideas analyzed: X
- Survivors: Y
- Killed: Z
## TOP RECOMMENDATION
**Idea:** [Name]
**Channel:** [Primary channel]
**Why:** [2-3 sentence rationale]
### Key metrics:
- Demand: [volume]/month
- Competition: [Index] [Ocean type]
- Revenue: $[X]/user
- MVP: [X] weeks
## Survivors Table
| Idea | Channel | Demand | Competition | Revenue | Interest | MVP | Score |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|---------|----------|-----|-------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
## KILL Log
| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| ... | ... | ... |
## Next Steps
1. Create Epic with ln-210 for top recommendation
2. Focus on [channel] as primary acquisition
3. Target MVP in [X] weeks
Time-Box
Ideas
Estimated time
3
15-20 min
5
25-35 min
10
50-70 min
Note: KILL funnel is faster than full scoring — bad ideas die early.
Integration
Position in workflow:
Product exists
↓
ln-201 (Opportunity Discovery) ← THIS SKILL
↓
ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)
↓
ln-220 (Story Coordinator)
Dependencies:
WebSearch (all filters except Interest)
AskUserQuestion (Interest filter)
Write, Bash (output)
Critical Rules
Traffic first — no traffic channel = no analysis
Bundle evidence once — do not run separate research-heavy phases if one pass can answer traffic, demand, competition, and revenue
KILL immediately — don't score dead ideas
One recommendation — avoid paralysis
No surveys — real search data only
Interest matters — ask only for externally viable ideas
MVP speed — slow launch = slow learning
Example Usage
With ideas:
ln-201-opportunity-discoverer ideas="AI writing tool, code review bot, translation API"
With context:
ln-201-opportunity-discoverer context="B2B developer tools SaaS"
Example output:
# Opportunity Discovery: 2026-01-29
## TOP RECOMMENDATION
**Idea:** Code review bot
**Channel:** SEO (developers search "code review tool")
**Why:** Growing demand (15K/mo), emerging market (3 competitors),
$50/user pricing proven, can MVP in 3 weeks with existing skills.
## KILL Log
| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| AI writing | Competition | Red Ocean (25+ competitors) |
| Translation API | Revenue | Commoditized, <$10/user |
Definition of Done
Ideas brainstormed from product context and market signals
Evidence bundle collected for each idea before kill decisions
Hard kill matrix applied before interest and MVP checks
Survivors scored and ranked
Discovery document generated at docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md
TOP RECOMMENDATION identified with channel + rationale
KILL Log documents all eliminated ideas with reasons
Structured opportunity-discovery-worker summary returned
Summary artifact written when summaryArtifactPath is provided
Reference Files
File
Purpose
filter_criteria.md
KILL thresholds for all filters
channel_analysis.md
Traffic channel identification
discovery_template.md
Output markdown template
MANDATORY READ: Load references/research_tool_fallback.md
Version: 2.0.0
Last Updated: 2026-01-29don't have the plugin yet? install it then click "run inline in claude" again.