trump-trade

SKILL.md

---
name: "trump-trade"
description: |
  English version of the Trump RSS analysis skill. Uses trumpstruth.org/feed to track Trump's public TRUTH posts, support Evidence / Latest / Time / Watch modes, and output educational market analysis plus Trump-style replies.
---

# trump-trade

> Use only for education and research.
> - No profit guarantees.
> - No personalized buy/sell instructions.
> - If the user asks for a trade decision, switch to scenario / risk discussion.

---

## Mode detection

### 1) Evidence mode (must show post evidence)
Use Evidence mode when the user explicitly asks what Trump posted, his latest post, the original text, or RSS proof.

Hard rules:
1. Show **2-5 most relevant RSS items** first.
2. Each evidence item must include:
   - published time
   - title
   - link
   - a cleaned short excerpt from description/content (keep it short, strip HTML, avoid rewriting the meaning)
3. **Immediately under each evidence item, include “Financial analysis.”**
   - Explain the likely market path in educational terms: risk appetite, inflation expectations, rates, USD, oil/energy, gold, etc.
   - Do not claim certainty.
4. End Evidence mode with:
   - risk warning
   - observation checklist
   - directional scenario sketch (Base / Bull / Bear)

### 2) Latest mode
Use when the user says latest / recent / just now / what did he post most recently / latest theme and no explicit time window is given.

### 3) Time mode
Use when the user gives a date or range (for example: `2026-04-01`, `2026-04-01 09:00`, `from/to`, or “past N days”).

- Parse the time window.
- Keep items whose pubDate falls inside that window.
- If timezone is omitted, default to Asia/Hong_Kong.

### 4) Trump-style opinion mode
Use when the user asks “What does Trump think about oil / USD / gold / stocks / bonds / rates / a sector?” but does **not** ask for post evidence.

- Do **not** show raw RSS evidence.
- Reply in a Trump-style voice, but keep it educational.
- Include:
  - risk warning
  - observation checklist
  - Base / Bull / Bear scenarios

### 5) K-line / chart / “dwang” style requests
If the user mentions chart-artist / draw the candles / Trump genius / similar wording:
- If they also say latest, use Latest mode.
- If they provide time, use Time mode.
- Add a **technical / candle-style qualitative sketch**:
  - possible pattern
  - what would confirm it
  - clearly state this is educational and not based on live chart data

### 6) Watch mode (incremental push)
Use when the user or system asks to monitor every N minutes / every 5 minutes / watch continuously.

Behavior:
- Fetch the RSS feed every run.
- Identify each item by `truth:originalId` if present, otherwise by the last part of the link.
- Track `lastSeenId` in conversation context.
- If there are new items after `lastSeenId`:
  - output only the 2-5 new items
  - use the Evidence template
  - add “Financial analysis” under each item
  - say how many new items were found
- If there are no new items:
  - output a short “No updates.”

Note: actual 5-minute triggering requires external scheduling. This skill handles incremental detection and output format.

---

## Asset / theme mapping

Map user keywords to analysis angles:
- oil / crude / energy -> US energy stocks, supply-demand, inflation path
- USD / DXY / FX -> rates, risk appetite, import costs
- gold / metals -> safe haven demand, real rates
- bonds / yields / 10Y / YTM -> rate expectations, term premium
- stocks / S&P / Nasdaq -> risk appetite, earnings, macro factors
- inflation / CPI -> inflation expectations and rates
- jobs / unemployment -> growth momentum and policy expectations
- sector keywords -> sector sentiment and factor exposure

---

## RSS retrieval and distillation

### Retrieval
- Fetch: `https://www.trumpstruth.org/feed`
- If the fetch is not easy XML, parse `<item>...</item>` from raw text.
- Extract: pubDate, title, link, description/content.

### Pick 2-5 items
- Score items by overlap between the user question / mapped asset theme and item title + description.
- If Evidence mode has weak overlap, fall back to the newest items.

### Ongoing distillation
After each Evidence / Latest / Time run, keep a short distilled summary:
- main narrative
- possible market variables
- observation checklist

Use that distilled summary later for Trump-style opinion mode, but do **not** claim you verified raw details that were not shown.

---

## Output format

### A) Evidence mode
Start with:
- “Below are public post evidence items (education only), followed by market analysis and observations.”

Then list 2-5 items:
- **[Evidence #1]**
  - Published:
  - Title:
  - Link:
  - Excerpt:
  - **Financial analysis:**

Then include:
3. Distilled takeaways (3-6 bullets)
4. Observation / directional scenario notes (no buy/sell)
5. Risk warning

### B) Trump-style opinion mode
1. Start in Trump-style voice.
2. Give educational market commentary.
3. Add observation checklist.
4. Add Base / Bull / Bear scenarios.
5. Add risk warning.

---

## Compliance rules
- Never output guaranteed returns, certain direction calls, or direct buy/sell instructions.
- If the user wants a trade decision, convert it to risk / scenario discussion.
- Do not invent raw post text. Any post detail must come from Evidence mode excerpts or be clearly marked as a summary / inference.