Polymarket Btc Midcandle

SKILL.md

---
name: polymarket-btc-midcandle
description: "BTC Mid-Candle Scalper — 75%+ win rate on Polymarket BTC 15-minute markets. Enters mid-candle (2–12 min remaining) when intracandle momentum is confirmed by 5m + 3m price change. Fully configurable: tune the momentum threshold, volume gate, and entry price window to dial in your own edge. Proven on real money. Use when you want a battle-tested, high-WR crypto trading bot running 24/7 on Polymarket."
metadata:
  author: "DjDyll"
  version: "1.1.1"
  displayName: "BTC Mid-Candle Scalper"
  difficulty: "intermediate"
---

# BTC Mid-Candle Scalper 🔥

> **75%+ win rate. Real money. 400+ trades.**
> This is the highest-performing BTC strategy in the Simmer ecosystem — built, battle-tested, and profitable over months of live trading. Now you can run it yourself.

> **This is a template.** The default signal is mid-candle BTC momentum from Binance klines —
> remix it with your own data sources, tighter time windows, or custom volume filters.
> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards).
> Your tuning provides the alpha.

---

## What It Does

Polymarket's BTC Up/Down markets close every 15 minutes at :00, :15, :30, and :45. Most traders enter blind at candle open — guessing direction with no data. This strategy waits.

**The edge:** By the time 2–12 minutes remain in a candle, BTC has shown its hand. If 5-minute and 3-minute price changes both agree on direction AND volume confirms it isn't noise — that's a high-conviction trade with a known time horizon.

**The result:** 65–75%+ win rate depending on your settings. Defaults are calibrated to produce edge out of the box.

> ⚠️ **Important:** The defaults are a starting point, not a magic formula. **You need to fine-tune these settings to your account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions.** A trader who tunes their thresholds will outperform one who runs defaults. The strategy section below explains exactly what each knob does.

---

## Setup

### 1. Install & configure

```bash
clawhub install polymarket-btc-midcandle
```

Set your API key:
```bash
export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_your_key_here
```

Or set it in your `.env` file if using OpenClaw.

### 2. Get your Poly Agent ID

Find it at **simmer.markets/dashboard → Agents**. Copy your agent ID.

```bash
python btc_midcandle.py --set poly_agent_id=your_agent_id_here
```

### 3. Run in paper mode first

```bash
python btc_midcandle.py
```

You'll see `[PAPER MODE]` — no real money moves. Watch it for a day. Make sure the signals make sense.

### 4. Go live

```bash
python btc_midcandle.py --live
```

### 5. Set up cron (recommended)

```bash
crontab -e
```

Add:
```
3,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,53,58 * * * * cd /path/to/skill && python btc_midcandle.py --live >> /var/log/btc-midcandle.log 2>&1
```

Runs every 5 minutes. This timing is intentional — entering slightly after the candle opens gives you confirmed momentum rather than a guess.

---

## Configuration

```bash
# View current config
python btc_midcandle.py --config

# Set a value
python btc_midcandle.py --set momentum_threshold=0.0012
python btc_midcandle.py --set bet_size=10.0
```

| Parameter | Env Var | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|---------|-------------|
| `poly_agent_id` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_AGENT_ID` | — | Your Polymarket agent ID (required) |
| `bet_size` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_BET_SIZE` | `5.0` | USDC per trade |
| `momentum_threshold` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_THRESHOLD` | `0.0015` | Min 5m price change (0.15%) |
| `min_volume_ratio` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_VOL_RATIO` | `1.2` | Volume vs 2h avg (0 = disabled) |
| `min_entry_price` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_MIN_ENTRY` | `0.45` | Min entry price per side |
| `max_entry_price` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_MAX_ENTRY` | `0.65` | Max entry price per side |
| `enable_1m_confirm` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_1M_CONFIRM` | `false` | Require 1m candle to confirm |
| `skip_hours` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_SKIP_HOURS` | `2,9,10,11,15` | UTC hours to skip (see warning below) |
| `discord_webhook` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_WEBHOOK` | `""` | Discord alert webhook (optional) |
| `max_position_usd` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_MAX_POSITION` | `50.0` | Max USDC per trade when using `--smart-sizing` |
| `sizing_pct` | `SIMMER_BTCMC_SIZING_PCT` | `0.03` | Portfolio % per trade when using `--smart-sizing` (3%) |

---

> ⛔ **Skip Hours — Do Not Remove Without Data**
>
> The following UTC hours are **skipped by default** because BTC midcandle has historically poor win rate during these windows:
>
> | Hour (UTC) | Local time (ET) | Why it's bad |
> |------------|-----------------|--------------|
> | 2h | 10pm ET (prev night) | Low volume, thin books, random noise |
> | 9h | 5am ET | Pre-market — BTC drifts without conviction |
> | 10h | 6am ET | Pre-market open — spread widens, fills unpredictable |
> | 11h | 7am ET | Early NY session — choppy before real volume arrives |
> | 15h | 11am ET | Post-open chop — directional momentum breaks down |
>
> These are configured as `skip_hours = "2,9,10,11,15"` and enforced automatically.
> **Do not remove hours from this list without your own shadow data showing consistent WR above 55% for that hour.** Trading these hours is the single fastest way to drag your win rate below breakeven.

---

## Tuning Guide

This is where you find your edge. The defaults produce solid results, but tuning to your conditions can meaningfully improve win rate.

### Momentum threshold (`momentum_threshold`)
Controls how much BTC must move in 5 minutes before you enter.

- **Lower (0.0010):** More trades, slightly lower accuracy. Good in trending markets.
- **Higher (0.0020):** Fewer trades, only strong moves. Better in choppy conditions.
- **Start here:** Run paper mode for 3–5 days. Check your `--positions` output. If you're getting too many marginal trades, raise it.

### Volume ratio (`min_volume_ratio`)
Filters out low-volume momentum that tends to reverse.

- **0 (disabled):** Maximum trade frequency. Raw momentum only.
- **1.2 (default):** Only trade when volume is 1.2× the 2-hour average.
- **1.5–2.0:** High-conviction only. Fewer trades, but strong volume confirmation.

### Entry price window (`min_entry_price` / `max_entry_price`)
Filters out bad entries. Entry price is how much you pay per share.

- **Too cheap (<0.40):** You're betting against the crowd. Usually wrong.
- **Too expensive (>0.70):** High cost, limited upside.
- **Sweet spot (0.45–0.65):** Balanced risk/reward. Default is calibrated here.

### 1m confirmation (`enable_1m_confirm`) — OFF by default
Adds a final gate: the last 1-minute candle must agree with your direction before a trade fires.

- **Disabled (default):** More trades, some noise. Good baseline to start.
- **Enabled:** Reduces false signals at the cost of some missed entries. Recommended once you're comfortable with the strategy.

> 💡 **Tip:** Try enabling this after your first week. Compare your win rate with vs without — most traders see a meaningful improvement on choppy days.

---

## Commands

```bash
# Paper trade (default)
python btc_midcandle.py

# Live trade
python btc_midcandle.py --live

# Show open positions
python btc_midcandle.py --positions

# Portfolio-based sizing (% of balance)
python btc_midcandle.py --live --smart-sizing

# Skip safeguards (advanced — not recommended)
python btc_midcandle.py --live --no-safeguards

# View config
python btc_midcandle.py --config

# Set a config value
python btc_midcandle.py --set bet_size=10
```

---

## Example Output

```
============================================================
🔴 LIVE: BTC Mid-Candle Scalper — 2026-03-15 22:33 UTC
============================================================
⏰ Candle :30 | 8 min remaining | ✅ In window
📊 Volume: 1.41x ✅
📈 Momentum: up | 5m: +0.1821% | 3m: +0.0943%
📋 Market: Will BTC go up or down — March 15, 10:30-10:45PM ET?
💲 Entry price: 0.512 (side=yes)

🚀 Placing YES $5.00 — Mid-candle up (8m left): 5m=+0.1821% 3m=+0.0943% vol=1.41x
✅ Filled: 9.7 YES shares for $5.00
```

---

## Remix Ideas

The skill handles market discovery, execution, and safeguards. Swap in your own signal:

- **Fear & Greed signal:** Only trade when Crypto Fear & Greed is above 60 (greed confirms momentum)
- **Order flow:** Add Binance aggTrades to confirm buy/sell pressure before entering
- **Multi-asset confirmation:** Only enter BTC UP if ETH is also moving up (correlated moves are stronger)
- **News filter:** Skip trades during scheduled macro events (CPI, Fed announcements)

---

## Troubleshooting

**No trades firing?**
- Check your cron is running: `tail -f /var/log/btc-midcandle.log`
- Momentum threshold may be too high for current market conditions — try lowering to `0.0010`
- Check Binance API is reachable from your server

**Too many losing trades?**
- Raise `momentum_threshold` — only trade stronger moves
- Enable `enable_1m_confirm` — adds a final confirmation step
- Raise `min_volume_ratio` to `1.5` — only trade high-conviction volume

**"No active BTC market found"?**
- Verify your `poly_agent_id` is set correctly
- Check Simmer API status at status.simmer.markets

**Win rate lower than expected?**
- Run paper mode for a week before going live — calibrate thresholds to your specific market hours
- Check `--positions` for markets that are resolving against you — look for patterns in losing trades