Patent Gap Supply Chain

SKILL.md

---
name: patent-gap-supply-chain
description: >-
  Competitive intelligence workflow that infers supply-chain relationships from patent gaps. 通过"专利缺口"反推产业链关系的竞争情报工作流。Use when researching tech/hardware/manufacturing/pharma stocks, analyzing industry supply chains, identifying suppliers, investigating patent gaps (a company uses a technology but holds no related patents), or inferring supply-chain relationships from patent ownership. 触发场景：科技股研究、行业分析、产业链推断、供应商识别、专利缺口分析、专利归属查询、技术依赖分析 / Triggers: patent gap analysis, supply chain inference, supplier identification, technology dependency, competitive intelligence, tech stock research, industry analysis. The skill starts from a patent gap, activates five parallel verification leads (patent ownership, corporate affiliation, talent flow, procurement, product teardown), with built-in alternative-hypothesis checks and counter-intelligence checks, outputting a confidence-scored supply-chain inference report.
version: 0.1.0
agent_created: true
---

# Patent Gap Supply Chain Inference

## Overview

This skill implements a competitive intelligence workflow: "patent gap → supply chain inference." Core insight: when target company A's product uses technology T, but A holds no patents related to T, there may be a technology-licensing or supply-chain dependency. By searching T's patent ownership to identify company B, then activating multiple verification leads, one can infer whether B has entered A's supply chain.

The skill downgrades "patents" from the sole evidence chain to an entry lead, enforcing multi-lead parallel verification, alternative-hypothesis checks, and counter-intelligence checks to prevent overconfident wrong conclusions.

## When to Use

Trigger when any of the following applies:

- Researching tech, hardware, manufacturing, pharma, or materials companies where supply chain or technology sourcing matters
- Conducting industry analysis, supply-chain mapping, or supplier identification
- Discovering or suspecting a company uses a technology but lacks related patents (patent gap)
- Explicitly asked to do patent ownership analysis, technology dependency analysis, or supply-chain inference

Trigger keywords (bilingual): 科技股研究, 行业分析, 产业链, 供应链, 供应商识别, 专利缺口, 专利归属, 技术依赖, patent gap, supply chain, supplier identification, technology dependency, competitive intelligence.

## Step 0: Applicability Pre-check (mandatory)

Before running the workflow, judge whether the target type is applicable:

| Target type | Applicability | Handling |
|-------------|---------------|----------|
| Hardware / manufacturing / pharma / materials | Strong | Proceed |
| Software / internet | Weak | Warn that patent protection is weak and tech is hidden; suggest code / open-source intelligence; may proceed at reduced confidence |
| Business-model innovation | Not applicable | Stop; suggest financial reports / prospectus / business-model analysis instead |

When not applicable, clearly inform the user and suggest alternatives. Do not force execution.

## Workflow Overview

The full workflow has 7 steps. Detailed operations in `references/workflow.md`:

1. **Trigger lead identification**: Confirm target A, product P, technology T; preliminarily judge whether A lacks T's patents
2. **Patent gap confirmation**: Search A's patent portfolio, compare against T, determine gap validity (exclude cross-licensing / acquisition inheritance / patent pools / open-source)
3. **Multi-lead parallel verification**: Activate 5 leads — patent ownership, corporate affiliation, talent flow, procurement, product teardown
4. **Multi-lead fusion + confidence scoring**: ≥2 high-confidence leads corroborating required to conclude; single lead is only a hypothesis
5. **Alternative-hypothesis check**: Explicitly exclude alternative explanations; see `references/checklists.md`
6. **Counter-intelligence check**: Check for abnormally dispersed patent ownership / shell-company patterns; see `references/checklists.md`
7. **Output report**: Relationship determination + evidence chain + confidence + alternative hypotheses + counter-intel risk + follow-up verification suggestions

## Input/Output Contract

**Input**:
- Target A (company name / ticker)
- Technology T or product P of interest (optional; may be identified during analysis)
- Known background info (optional)

**Output**: Supply-chain inference report, including:
- Relationship determination: whether B entered A's supply chain + B's role (direct supplier / technology licensor / indirect affiliation / NPE license-only)
- Evidence chain: per-lead hit status + per-lead confidence + corroboration
- Overall confidence: high / medium / low + rationale
- Alternative-hypothesis list: excluded + unexcluded
- Counter-intelligence risk flag: whether patent ownership is abnormally dispersed / shell-company patterns exist
- Follow-up verification suggestions: next evidence to gather

## Tool Integration

Available tools per lead (by availability priority):

| Lead | Tools | Purpose |
|------|-------|---------|
| Patent search | tushare (patent API), PatSnap patsnap-search connector | Search A/B patents, T's patent ownership |
| Corporate affiliation | Tianyancha tyc-mcp, Qichacha qcc-company, Qixinbao qixinbao-mcp | A-B investment / JV / executive overlap |
| Listed-co data | tushare, westock-mcp, westock-tool | Financial report supplier disclosure, prospectus |
| Talent flow | WebSearch, job-site search | B→A technical hires |
| Procurement | WebSearch, gov-procurement portals, tender announcements | A's tender / supplier announcements |
| Product teardown | WebSearch, professional teardown reports | A's product BOM / teardown for B components |

When a tool is unavailable, fall back to WebSearch for public info and reduce that lead's confidence accordingly.

## Key Principles

- **Patents are an entry lead, not final evidence**: A patent gap triggers verification but does not directly conclude
- **Multi-lead corroboration**: ≥2 high-confidence leads corroborating required to conclude
- **Explicit confidence scoring**: Every lead and inference gets a confidence score (high / medium / low)
- **Alternative hypotheses are mandatory**: Every inference must explicitly exclude alternative explanations
- **Counter-intelligence check is mandatory**: Watch for targets using shell companies / dispersed patents to hide the real supply chain

## Resources

### references/
- `references/workflow.md`: Detailed 7-step operations, including per-step decision rules, tool invocation, output format
- `references/checklists.md`: Alternative-hypothesis checklist, counter-intelligence checklist, confidence scoring rules

### examples/
- `examples/sample-output.md`: A worked example showing the full report format for a fictional case