Overseas Expansion Framework

SKILL.md

---
name: overseas-expansion-framework
description: "Activate when: user says 'we want to go global' or 'expand internationally', founder is choosing between opening a local office vs. going digital-first in a new country, company has home-market traction and is planning its first international move, investor asks whether a portfolio company's overseas revenue is digital or entity-based.
  Do NOT activate when: the company has no home-market product-market fit (run pmf-crossing-the-chasm first); the overseas entity is already established and operating (scaling question, not entry question)."
---

# Overseas Expansion Framework

## Overview

International expansion forks into two models: **Spirit Expansion** (精神出海) — product/IP travels digitally or via exported goods, no local presence required — and **Physical Expansion** (实体出海) — the company establishes entities, hires locally, and embeds operations in-market. Wrong mode selection is among the most expensive strategic errors in international growth. Related: **`second-order-thinking`** before mode selection · **`lean-startup`** for minimum viable expansion · **`pareto-principle`** to prioritize markets.

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## When to Use / When NOT

**Use when:** "we want to go global" without specifying mode · designing first international expansion (digital-first vs. entity-first) · investor asks whether overseas revenue is Spirit or Physical · diagnosing a past international expansion failure.
**Do NOT use when:** no home-market PMF (run `pmf-crossing-the-chasm`) · entity already operational · purely local service with no digital component · already have established presence in the target market.

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## Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door)

- **Engine mode:** concrete expansion case → run The Process directly.
- **Coach mode:** unfamiliar or no concrete case → guide step by step.

In Coach mode, respond one step at a time. Each [WAIT] is a hard stop — output only that step's question, then stop.

1. Ask: "In 12 months, does your team in [target market] include local hires?" Name the implicit mode assumption.
2. Check: does the product require local trust, local license, local logistics, or real-time local-language support? ≥2 yes → Physical likely; 0–1 → Spirit default.
3. Introduce Spirit/Physical vocabulary using the mode the founder already implicitly holds.
> **[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]**
4. Map the 3 most common failure modes for the selected mode; stress-test the plan.
> **[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]**
5. Ask: "What would you need to see from Spirit before committing to Physical?" Surface the validation trigger gap as the key insight.
> **[WAIT — do not advance until user responds]**

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## The Process

**Stop-rule:** If the product requires a local licensed entity to operate at all (financial services, healthcare, telecom), skip Steps 1–3 — Physical is mandatory; go directly to Step 4.

**Step 1 — Score the product (0–4 Physical signals).**

| Criteria | Spirit Signal | Physical Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Trust | Product/brand trust | Relationship trust via local people |
| Regulatory | None / passported | Local license or entity required |
| Distribution | Digital (app, web, API) | Physical (retail, logistics, field sales) |
| Customer service | Async / automated | Real-time, local language |

0–1 Physical → default Spirit. 3–4 → default Physical. 2 → deeper analysis required.

**Step 2 — Select mode.** Spirit: no local entity needed to generate revenue (SaaS, content, API, hardware via global platforms). Physical: local entity + headcount + licensing required. Hybrid: Spirit first to validate, Physical to scale — define the validation trigger before beginning.

**Step 3 — Spirit Risk Audit** (Spirit or Hybrid): assess platform dependency · brand localization · invisible regulatory creep · support gap · distribution assumption. Each "yes" → mitigation plan before launch.

**Step 4 — Physical Pre-Expansion Checklist (12):** local regulatory opinion · distribution validated · willingness-to-pay tested locally · talent plan · entity structure · transfer pricing · local banking · IP/trademark registered · local UX test · exit plan + wind-down cost · founder presence assessed · capital commitment with go/no-go trigger.

**Step 5 — Validation trigger + review cadence.** Define observable signals for (a) Spirit→Physical escalation, (b) Physical footprint expansion, (c) withdrawal. Set 90-day and 180-day review dates.

### Output: Expansion Mode Decision Record
`Company / Market / Product | Signal count: [0–4] | Mode: [Spirit/Physical/Hybrid] | Rationale | Validation trigger | Risk audit status | Capital: budget · ceiling · go/no-go · exit cost | Review: 90-day · 180-day · escalation · withdrawal triggers`

*→ Method in Action: [Nintendo's Spirit-First, Physical-Second US Market Entry (1985)](examples/nintendo-spirit-first-physical-second-us-market-entry-1985.md)*

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## Expansion Mode Packs

A **Pack** adds market-specific calibration: default mode bias, regulatory classification, key distribution channels, entity structure norms, checklist additions, Spirit-phase benchmarks. **Existing:** Southeast Asia (SaaS) — Spirit-friendly B2B SaaS, Physical for fintech/healthcare. Middle East (Consumer) — Physical preferred by enterprise, Spirit viable for consumer apps.

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## Applying It Well

1. Mode selection precedes market selection — mode determines which markets are accessible at a given capital level.
2. Spirit Expansion is not "doing nothing" — deliberate localization, distribution, and support are still required.
3. Write the validation trigger before the Spirit phase; post-hoc triggers are subject to motivated reasoning.
4. Physical Expansion costs are always underestimated 2–3×; items 7–12 of the checklist are consistently forgotten.
5. Regulatory misread is the top Physical Expansion killer — local counsel opinion is non-negotiable; use **`margin-of-safety`** on timeline and cost.

*→ Primary sources: [references/sources.md](references/sources.md)*

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## Common Rationalizations

**[D] = designed upfront | [O] = observed in real use. [O] entries are more valuable.**

| Fake Move | Reality |
|---|---|
| [D] "We need to be on the ground to really understand the market" | Spirit Expansion generates equally rich signal through user data and digital engagement — often faster and cheaper. |
| [D] "Our competitors have a physical office there, so we need one" | Their mode selection is not a prescription for yours. |
| [D] "Setting up an entity is cheap and easy" | Ongoing compliance, banking, payroll, and wind-down are the actual cost; items 7–12 of the checklist are consistently forgotten. |
| [D] "We'll hire a Country Manager and they'll figure it out" | Without a mode-matched strategy and pre-funded capital, a Country Manager spends 6 months on decisions the company should have made before hiring. |
| [D] "We got inbound — we should open an office" | Inbound is a Spirit validation signal, not a Physical trigger. |
| [D] "Spirit Expansion means we're not serious" | Nintendo's US entry — most successful consumer electronics expansion of the 20th century — was Spirit-first. |
| [D] "We'll figure out regulations once we're in the market" | Regulatory misread after entity establishment is among the most expensive international errors. |
| [D] "We can always pull out if it doesn't work" | Exit often costs 12–24 months of entity run-rate plus severance and compliance wind-down. |
| *→ Add [O] entries here after each real use — paste the actual failure pattern* | *What went wrong and why* |

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## Red Flags / Verification

**Red Flags:** plan names activities without specifying mode · Physical plan has no go/no-go trigger or exit plan · validation trigger is "sufficient traction" not a specific metric · local knowledge is only a research report + 3-day site visit · capital commitment omits wind-down cost.

**Verification:**
- [ ] Product scored on all 4 criteria; Physical signal count documented
- [ ] Mode (Spirit / Physical / Hybrid) named with rationale; validation trigger written down before launch
- [ ] Spirit: 5 Risk Audit items assessed; mitigation for each "yes"
- [ ] Physical: all 12 checklist items answered — none deferred to post-entity
- [ ] Exit plan, wind-down cost, and 90-/180-day review dates documented
- [ ] Stop-rule applied: regulated market → Physical-required, Steps 1–3 skipped

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*Part of **deciqAI Knowledge Skills** — 164 open-source thinking skills that make rigor executable for AI agents. The same skills power every deciqAI agent, which runs them autonomously to operate your company. **See it run → https://www.deciqai.com/c/overseas-expansion-framework** · ⭐ Star the repo → https://github.com/deciqAI/knowledge-skills · Contributions welcome.*