Geopolitical Risk & Global Governance Intelligence

SKILL.md

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# Geopolitical Risk & Global Governance Intelligence

Worldwide geopolitical intelligence engine. 30 authoritative sources across conflict monitoring, sanctions tracking, governance assessment, multilateral institutions, and think tank analysis. Built for anyone needing rigorous geopolitical risk assessment.

## Triggers

- "Assess geopolitical risk in [region]"
- "Track sanctions against [country/entity]"
- "Analyze Taiwan Strait escalation scenarios"
- "Compare defense spending by country"
- "Monitor UN Security Council dynamics"
- "Evaluate global governance reform proposals"
- "Track trade war / tariff escalations"
- "Assess cyber threat landscape by actor"

## Capabilities

| # | Capability | Data Scope | Output Mode |
|---|-----------|-----------|-------------|
| 1 | Conflict monitoring & analysis | ACLED (2M+ events), UCDP (1946-present), Crisis Group | Real-time dashboard: fatalities, displacement, territorial changes, intensity trends |
| 2 | Sanctions intelligence | OFAC, EU Sanctions Map, UN SC, BIS Entity List, Global Trade Alert | Entity screening, sanctions program comparison, evasion risk, compliance guidance |
| 3 | Military capability assessment | SIPRI, IISS Military Balance, JANES | 10-country spending ranking, capability inventories, modernization trends, arms trade flows |
| 4 | Governance & democracy tracking | WGI, Freedom House, V-Dem, Fragile States Index, EIU Democracy Index | 6-dimension governance scores, regime classification, democratic backsliding alerts |
| 5 | Multilateral institution analysis | UN Digital Library, UN Treaty Collection, G20, BRICS+, NATO | Voting patterns, treaty ratification, institutional reform trajectories, bloc formation |
| 6 | Geopolitical flashpoint deep-dive | 10 flashpoints: SCS, Taiwan, Ukraine, Middle East, Korea, Quad, Sahel, Essequibo, Arctic, Balkans | Trigger matrix, escalation ladder, scenario probabilities, second-order effects |
| 7 | Cyber & information warfare | ENISA, CISA, Recorded Future, Citizen Lab | Threat actor mapping, TTP evolution, incident impact assessment, disinformation campaign analysis |
| 8 | Think tank consensus & divergence | CFR, Chatham House, Carnegie, RAND, CSIS, IFRI, Brookings | Policy position tracking, consensus scores, minority view flagging |
| 9 | Trade war & economic coercion | Global Trade Alert, WTO TMD, BIS Entity List | Tariff escalation ladder, non-tariff barriers, forced technology transfer, economic deterrence |
| 10 | Scenario planning & early warning | Integrated cross-source fusion | Red team scenarios, indicator and warning (I&W) matrices, trigger event calendars |

## Workflow

```
User Query
    │
    ├─ Country/region risk query → Governance + Conflict + Sanctions data fusion
    │   └─ Output: Risk scorecard (1-10) + key drivers + 3-6 month outlook
    │
    ├─ Sanctions screening query → OFAC + EU + UN + BIS cross-reference
    │   └─ Output: Entity status + program scope + secondary sanctions risk
    │
    ├─ Conflict analysis → ACLED real-time + UCDP historical + Crisis Group assessment
    │   └─ Output: Timeline + territorial map + humanitarian impact + resolution scenarios
    │
    ├─ Military comparison → SIPRI spending + IISS capabilities + procurement trends
    │   └─ Output: Side-by-side tables, gap analysis, modernization trajectories
    │
    └─ Scenario planning → Flashpoint trigger matrix + think tank consensus divergence
        └─ Output: Base / adverse / extreme scenarios with probability ranges
```

## Output Formats

### Format 1: Country Risk Scorecard
```
| Dimension | Score (1-10) | Trend | Key Indicator |
|-----------|-------------|-------|---------------|
| Political Stability  | X | ↑/↓/→ | [source] |
| Governance Quality   | X | ↑/↓/→ | WGI/WB   |
| Conflict Risk         | X | ↑/↓/→ | ACLED    |
| Sanctions Exposure    | X | ↑/↓/→ | OFAC/EU  |
| Economic Resilience   | X | ↑/↓/→ | IMF/WB   |
| Overall Risk          | X | ↑/↓/→ | Composite |
```

### Format 2: Flashpoint Escalation Ladder
```
| Level | Trigger | Probability | Impact Radius | Response Options |
```

### Format 3: Sanctions Program Comparison
```
| Country | US (OFAC) | EU | UN | UK | JP | Scope | Humanitarian Exemptions |
```

## Usage Guidelines

- Always cite data source with date of latest observation
- Distinguish between assessed probability vs. market consensus
- Flag high uncertainty with ranges rather than point estimates
- Note where think tank consensus diverges from government narratives
- Avoid speculation; anchor in documented patterns

## Examples

**Q: What's the Taiwan Strait risk for Q3 2026?**
→ ACLED cross-strait incidents + Chinese military exercises (JANES) + US arms sales (SIPRI) + think tank consensus (CFR/CSIS/Chatham House) → Escalation probability [X%], key triggers [list], US-China redlines [list]

**Q: Screen entity [X] against all sanctions programs**
→ OFAC SDN + EU Consolidated + UN SC + BIS Entity List → Status: [sanctioned/not], programs: [list], secondary risk: [yes/no]

**Q: Compare defense spending of NATO vs. China+R+NK**
→ SIPRI top-10 + IISS capability data → Total: NATO $XXXB vs. PRC+ $XXXB, gap analysis: [navy/air/cyber/missile defense]

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**Data Sources (30 total)**: See `references/geopolitical_sources.json` for complete listing with URLs and update frequencies.
*（内容由AI生成，仅供参考）*