Flash Sale Designer

SKILL.md

---
name: Flash Sale Designer
description: Design flash sale structures including countdown logic, stock visibility, urgency triggers, and post-sale follow-up to maximize conversion during the window.
---

# Flash Sale Designer

Flash sales can generate massive revenue spikes in short windows, but poorly designed ones lead to site crashes, disappointed customers, brand damage, and razor-thin margins that don't justify the operational chaos. This skill helps ecommerce operators architect every element of a flash sale — from countdown mechanics and inventory visibility rules to urgency copywriting and post-sale recovery sequences — so that each limited-time event maximizes conversion rate and average order value while protecting brand perception and fulfillment capacity.

## Quick Reference

| Decision | Strong Choice | Acceptable | Weak / Avoid |
|----------|---------------|------------||--------------|
| Sale duration | 4–8 hours (peak urgency) | 2–24 hours | >48 hours (kills urgency) |
| Discount depth | 20–40% on hero SKUs | 15–50% with justification | >60% (margin destruction + brand damage) |
| Stock visibility | Show units remaining when <30% left | Show "X sold today" | Hide all stock data |
| Countdown placement | Above fold, product page + cart | Header banner | Only in email |
| Recovery sequence | Email + SMS within 2 hours of close | Email within 24 hours | No recovery touchpoint |
| Channel coordination | Simultaneous across all channels | Staggered by 15 min | Uncoordinated / different prices |
| Post-sale messaging | "Event ended" + waitlist CTA | Normal store view | Nothing — dead silence |

## Problems This Skill Solves

1. **Flash sales that burn margin without lifting AOV** — poorly structured discounts attract deal-hunters but don't convert higher-margin adjacent products.
2. **Urgency mechanics that feel fake** — countdown timers that reset, stock numbers that don't change, and vague "limited time" language erode trust and reduce conversion.
3. **Operational chaos at go-live** — inadequate pre-sale communication, technical bottlenecks, and fulfillment under-planning turn revenue events into customer service disasters.
4. **No post-event capture** — sellers who end a flash sale with no recovery sequence leave significant revenue on the table from visitors who arrived late or hesitated.
5. **Multi-channel inconsistency** — different discount rates, messaging, or timing across Shopify, TikTok Shop, and email create confusion and brand credibility issues.
6. **Audience over-discounting** — training your customer base to wait for sales by running them too frequently or too deeply.
7. **No performance baseline** — running events without measuring key metrics means you can't improve future flash sales.

## Workflow

### Step 1 — Qualify the Event

Before designing mechanics, confirm the event rationale:

- **Inventory clearance**: Stock exceeds 90-day supply → deep discount is justified
- **Demand validation**: New product / new SKU → use flash as a proof-of-concept event
- **Revenue acceleration**: End-of-month shortfall → use flash to pull forward purchases
- **Community reward**: Loyal customer appreciation → deeper discount, tighter audience
- **Competitive response**: Competitor running a major sale → match or counter-position

The rationale determines appropriate discount depth, audience targeting, and messaging tone. Document this before proceeding.

### Step 2 — Set the Mechanics Architecture

Define each of these parameters explicitly:

**Duration**
- 2–4 hours: maximum urgency, requires pre-sale hype and warm audience
- 4–8 hours: best balance of urgency and reach for most sellers
- 8–24 hours: lower urgency, better for large catalogs or global time zones
- 24–48 hours: treat as a weekend sale, not a flash event; adjust messaging accordingly

**Discount Structure**
- Flat discount (all SKUs same %): simplest operationally, easy to communicate
- Tiered discount (first 100 orders get 40%, next 200 get 30%): creates early-buyer urgency
- Basket-size discount (spend $50 get 25%, spend $100 get 35%): raises AOV
- Specific SKU focus: protects margin on full-price items, clears slow movers

**Stock Visibility Rules**
Use `references/stock-visibility-guide.md` for threshold logic:
- Show "Only X left" when inventory drops below 30% of flash allocation
- Show "X units sold" when early traction data is strong (social proof)
- Never show real-time inventory numbers if your backend can't update in near real-time

**Countdown Timer**
- Place above the fold on product pages AND in the cart
- Never reset the timer — this destroys credibility irreparably
- Use server-side time, not client-side (prevents timezone manipulation)
- Display days:hours:minutes:seconds for events >24 hours; hours:minutes:seconds for shorter events

### Step 3 — Design the Traffic and Communication Sequence

Use the 72-hour pre-sale communication cadence from `references/presale-sequence.md`:

- **T-72 hours**: Teaser email/SMS to list — "Something big is coming"
- **T-24 hours**: Full reveal email — product, discount, exact start time
- **T-1 hour**: Reminder push notification + SMS for high-engagement subscribers
- **T-0**: Launch email to full list + social media posts
- **T+2 hours**: "Halfway through" update if stock is moving fast
- **T+30 min before end**: Final urgency push to non-openers
- **T+0 end**: "Event closed" email + waitlist capture

### Step 4 — Build the Urgency Copy Stack

Every touchpoint in the flash sale needs urgency language calibrated to the channel. Refer to `references/urgency-copy-guide.md` for full templates. Core principles:

- **Be specific**: "47 units remaining" beats "almost gone"
- **Be honest**: Never manufacture fake scarcity — real numbers convert better and don't create legal exposure
- **Match urgency to time remaining**: "Ends in 6 hours" is fine at hour 2; switch to "Last 90 minutes" at T-90
- **CTA clarity**: One action per touchpoint — "Shop Now," "Add to Cart," or "Join Waitlist"

### Step 5 — Post-Sale Recovery and Measurement

**Recovery sequence** (launch within 2 hours of close):
- "Missed it?" email to non-purchasers with waitlist signup for next event
- "You got it!" confirmation email to purchasers with UGC prompt
- Social post: results summary ("1,200 units sold in 4 hours — thank you!")

**Metrics to capture** (use `assets/flash-sale-checklist.md`):
- Conversion rate during window vs. baseline
- Revenue per hour vs. non-sale hourly average
- Average order value during event
- Email open rate, click rate, unsubscribe rate
- Cart abandonment rate during event
- Customer acquisition cost of new buyers
- Return rate of flash-sale purchases vs. baseline

## Worked Examples

### Example 1 — Shopify DTC Brand (4-Hour Clearance Event)

**Setup**: Hair care brand, 800 units of slow-moving volumizing spray. Current retail: $38. Floor price: $22 (42% off = $16 margin).

**Chosen mechanics**:
- Duration: 6 hours (11am–5pm EST, covers East + West coast peak hours)
- Discount: 35% off ($24.70), not 42% — preserves $2.70 more margin per unit
- Stock visibility: "Only X left" trigger at 240 units (30% threshold)
- Countdown: Above fold on PDP and in cart sidebar
- Audience: Email list + TikTok organic teaser 24 hours prior

**Communication sequence**:
- T-48h: "Something's coming tomorrow" TikTok Reel with blurred product
- T-24h: Email reveal + Instagram post
- T-1h: SMS to subscribers who opted in
- T-0: Full email blast + TikTok live start

**Result forecast**: 400 units × $24.70 = $9,880 revenue, $6,880 margin. Remaining 400 units held for next event or bundled.

---

### Example 2 — TikTok Shop Launch Event (2-Hour Exclusive Drop)

**Setup**: New collagen supplement, 500 units for launch event. Retail: $45. Flash price: $27 (40% off). Goal: reviews and velocity for algorithm ranking.

**Chosen mechanics**:
- Duration: 2 hours (7pm–9pm EST, TikTok prime time)
- Discount: 40% + free shipping (actual unit economics: $27 - $8 COGS - $5 shipping = $14 margin)
- Stock visibility: "X sold this hour" social proof counter
- Live selling: 90-minute TikTok live with product demo
- Urgency copy: "Tonight only. 500 units. Not restocking at this price."

**Recovery**:
- Post-event: "Waitlist for next drop" landing page
- All buyers: UGC request in day-3 follow-up email

## Common Mistakes

1. **Timer resets**: Resetting a countdown "accidentally" destroys customer trust and often violates platform advertising rules. Use server-side timers.
2. **Over-discounting the hero product**: Your bestseller doesn't need a flash sale — it already converts. Use slow-moving SKUs or bundles.
3. **No pre-sale hype**: Launching a flash sale with zero warm-up results in weak opens and poor conversion in the first hour, which wastes the entire event.
4. **Ignoring mobile UX**: If the countdown timer breaks on mobile or the cart feels slow during the event, conversions crater. Test on mobile before launch.
5. **Underestimating fulfillment pressure**: Flash sales can generate 10x normal order volume in one hour. If your 3PL or in-house fulfillment can't handle it, don't run the event.
6. **Missing the recovery sequence**: 40–60% of flash sale revenue can come from people who saw the event but didn't buy during the window. Capture them with a waitlist.
7. **No baseline comparison**: If you don't know your normal hourly revenue, you can't tell whether the flash sale was worth the margin sacrifice.
8. **Running events too frequently**: Monthly flash sales train your audience to wait for discounts, compressing your full-price conversion rate permanently.

## Resources

- `references/presale-sequence.md` — Full 72-hour pre-sale communication templates
- `references/urgency-copy-guide.md` — Channel-by-channel urgency copy library with 40+ templates
- `references/stock-visibility-guide.md` — Inventory threshold logic and stock messaging rules
- `assets/flash-sale-checklist.md` — Pre-launch, during-event, and post-event quality checklist