Bundle Strategy

SKILL.md

---
name: bundle-strategy
description: Design product bundles that increase average order value by analyzing purchase affinity data, margin contribution, and perceived value to create offers that sell better together than apart.
---

# Bundle Strategy

Design product bundles that increase average order value (AOV) by combining purchase affinity analysis, margin contribution modeling, and perceived-value engineering. This skill guides you from raw transaction data to a launched bundle offer with validated pricing.

---

## Quick Reference

Use this table to evaluate bundling decisions fast. Each row is a signal you can check before committing inventory or marketing spend.

| Decision | Strong Signal | Acceptable Signal | Weak Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Product affinity** | Co-purchase rate > 25% in last 90 days | Co-purchase rate 10-25% | Co-purchase rate < 10% or no data |
| **Margin headroom** | Blended bundle margin > 55% after discount | Blended margin 35-55% | Blended margin < 35% or negative on anchor SKU |
| **Perceived savings** | Bundle discount appears 20-35% vs. items bought separately | Discount appears 12-19% | Discount < 12% (not motivating) or > 40% (erodes brand) |
| **Inventory alignment** | All SKUs have 8+ weeks of stock at projected bundle velocity | 4-7 weeks of stock | < 4 weeks stock on any component SKU |
| **Category coherence** | Products share a clear use occasion ("morning skincare routine") | Products are in adjacent categories | Products feel random to the buyer |
| **Cannibalization risk** | Bundle adds net-new units; hero SKU solo sales unchanged | Hero SKU solo sales dip < 8% | Hero SKU solo sales drop > 8% with no offsetting margin |
| **Customer segment fit** | Target segment has AOV within 1.2x of bundle price | AOV within 1.5x of bundle price | Bundle price > 1.5x segment AOV |
| **Repeat purchase potential** | Bundle contains at least one consumable driving reorder | Bundle contains items with 6-12 month replacement cycle | All items are durable one-time purchases |

---

## Solves

This skill addresses the following problems sellers encounter when trying to grow basket size:

1. **Low average order value** -- Customers buy one item and leave. Bundles give them a reason to add related products in a single transaction.
2. **Slow-moving inventory** -- Pairing a slow seller with a high-demand anchor product clears aged stock without deep standalone markdowns.
3. **Margin erosion from blanket discounts** -- Instead of site-wide 20%-off sales, bundles concentrate discounts on combinations where incremental margin still covers the reduction.
4. **Weak perceived differentiation** -- A curated bundle ("The Complete Home Barista Kit") creates a branded experience competitors cannot replicate with the same commodity parts.
5. **High customer acquisition cost with low LTV** -- Bundles that include a consumable replenishment item seed a repeat-purchase relationship, improving payback on ad spend.
6. **Decision fatigue reducing conversion** -- New customers facing 200 SKUs convert better when offered a pre-selected "starter" bundle that removes the research burden.
7. **Seasonal demand spikes going under-monetized** -- Gift-season bundles capture willingness to pay more per order during peak windows.

---

## Workflow

### Step 1: Mine Purchase Affinity Data

Pull 90 days of order-level transaction data. For every pair of SKUs that appeared in the same order (or the same customer's orders within 14 days), compute:

- **Co-purchase frequency**: number of orders containing both SKU A and SKU B.
- **Lift**: (co-purchase rate) / (base rate of A x base rate of B). A lift > 2.0 means the pair is bought together far more often than chance.
- **Sequence direction**: which SKU was purchased first (useful for identifying anchor vs. add-on roles).

Sort pairs by lift descending. Focus on pairs where both SKUs have meaningful individual sales volume (> 50 units/month each) to avoid noise from low-volume coincidences.

**Output of this step**: A ranked list of 10-20 high-affinity SKU pairs with lift scores, co-purchase counts, and directional data.

### Step 2: Assess Margin Contribution

For each candidate pair (or trio), build a margin model:

1. Record the landed cost (COGS + inbound freight + pick/pack) per SKU.
2. Record the current selling price per SKU.
3. Calculate standalone gross margin per SKU: `(Price - Landed Cost) / Price`.
4. Model the bundle at three discount tiers (15%, 20%, 25% off combined retail).
5. For each tier compute: blended bundle margin = `(Bundle Price - Sum of Landed Costs) / Bundle Price`.
6. Flag any tier where blended margin falls below your floor (typically 35% for DTC, 20% for marketplace).

Also estimate the **incremental margin per order**: compare the margin of a single-SKU order for your anchor product to the margin of the bundle order. The bundle must generate more absolute margin dollars per order even after the discount.

**Output of this step**: A margin table per candidate bundle showing price points, costs, margin percentages, and incremental margin dollars.

### Step 3: Engineer Perceived Value

The bundle must look like a deal without being priced so low you train customers to wait for bundles. Apply these principles:

- **Anchor pricing**: Display the total "if purchased separately" price prominently. The crossed-out sum is the anchor.
- **Round-number bundle price**: If the sum of components is $87, price the bundle at $69 (not $69.60). Round numbers feel intentional, not arbitrary.
- **Include a low-cost, high-perceived-value bonus item**: A $2-cost sample, travel pouch, or accessory that customers perceive as worth $10-15 adds deal appeal without eroding margin.
- **Name the bundle**: "The Weekend Reset Kit" outperforms "Cleanser + Toner + Moisturizer Bundle." A name signals curation.
- **Limit availability**: "Limited to 500 kits" or "Available through May only" adds urgency without permanent price anchoring.

**Output of this step**: Final bundle composition, name, hero pricing, anchor comparison price, and any bonus items with their cost impact.

### Step 4: Validate Against Cannibalization Risk

Before launch, model the downside scenario:

- What percentage of current solo purchases of the anchor SKU will convert to bundle purchases?
- At the bundle discount, does total margin from (remaining solo sales + bundle sales) exceed current total margin from solo sales alone?
- Use a conservative assumption: 15-25% of solo anchor buyers will switch to the bundle.

Build a simple scenario table:

| Scenario | Solo units | Bundle units | Total margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (no bundle) | 1,000 | 0 | $28,000 |
| Conservative (15% switch, 10% net new) | 850 | 250 | $29,750 |
| Aggressive (25% switch, 20% net new) | 750 | 400 | $31,200 |
| Worst case (30% switch, 0% net new) | 700 | 300 | $26,900 |

If worst case is within 5% of baseline, the bundle is low-risk. If worst case drops margin by more than 10%, reconsider the discount depth or target segment.

**Output of this step**: Cannibalization scenario table with margin projections.

### Step 5: Design the Offer Page and Merchandising

Translate the bundle strategy into an on-site experience:

- **Bundle PDP**: Create a dedicated product page (not just a cart upsell). Include a hero image showing all items together, the anchor price crossed out, the bundle price, and a clear "You Save $X" callout.
- **Cross-sell widgets**: On each component SKU's PDP, add a "Frequently Bought Together" or "Complete the Set" module linking to the bundle.
- **Cart upsell**: If a customer adds the anchor SKU to cart, trigger a drawer or modal: "Add [companion item] and save $X -- upgrade to [Bundle Name]."
- **Email and ad creative**: Brief the creative team with the bundle name, key value proposition, savings amount, and urgency framing.

**Output of this step**: A merchandising brief covering page layout, cross-sell placement, cart upsell logic, and creative direction.

### Step 6: Launch, Measure, and Iterate

Run the bundle for a minimum of 14 days (or 200 orders, whichever comes first) before making structural changes. Track:

- **Bundle conversion rate**: sessions on bundle PDP / bundle orders.
- **AOV impact**: compare AOV for sessions that saw the bundle vs. control.
- **Cannibalization rate**: solo anchor SKU units during bundle period vs. prior period (seasonality-adjusted).
- **Bundle margin per order**: actual blended margin after fulfillment costs.
- **Return rate**: bundles sometimes have higher return rates if customers only wanted one component.

After the measurement window, decide:
- **Scale**: increase traffic to bundle PDP, add to homepage, expand to email.
- **Adjust**: change price point, swap the bonus item, test a different discount tier.
- **Kill**: if cannibalization exceeds worst case or return rate is > 2x single-SKU rate, discontinue.

**Output of this step**: A performance dashboard and go/no-go recommendation.

### Step 7: Expand the Bundle Portfolio

Once you have one validated bundle, systematize:

- Build a quarterly bundle calendar tied to seasonality and inventory cycles.
- Create tiered bundles (Good / Better / Best) at different price points for the same product family.
- Test "Build Your Own Bundle" (BYOB) mechanics where customers pick 3 of 5 items at a fixed price.
- Archive bundle performance data to train future affinity models.

**Output of this step**: A 12-month bundle roadmap with launch dates, themes, and target metrics.

---

## Worked Examples

### Example 1: Skincare "Morning Glow" Bundle

**Context**: A DTC skincare brand sells cleansers, serums, and moisturizers. Their AOV is $38 and they want to push it above $55.

**Step 1 -- Affinity Data**:
Transaction analysis of 12,400 orders over 90 days reveals:

| SKU Pair | Co-purchase Count | Lift | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitamin C Serum + Daily Moisturizer SPF 30 | 847 | 3.4 | Serum purchased first 72% of the time |
| Gentle Cleanser + Vitamin C Serum | 623 | 2.8 | Cleanser first 65% |
| Gentle Cleanser + Daily Moisturizer SPF 30 | 510 | 2.1 | Even split |

The three-product combination (Cleanser + Serum + Moisturizer) appears in 388 orders (lift 4.1 for the trio). This is the bundle candidate.

**Step 2 -- Margin Analysis**:

| SKU | Retail Price | Landed Cost | Standalone Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gentle Cleanser (150ml) | $24.00 | $5.80 | 75.8% |
| Vitamin C Serum (30ml) | $42.00 | $8.20 | 80.5% |
| Daily Moisturizer SPF 30 (50ml) | $28.00 | $7.40 | 73.6% |
| **Sum if separate** | **$94.00** | **$21.40** | **77.2%** |

Bundle price options:

| Discount Tier | Bundle Price | Savings Shown | Blended Margin | Incremental Margin vs. Solo Serum Order |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% off | $79.90 | $14.10 (15%) | 73.2% | +$37.30 per order (+110%) |
| 20% off | $75.00 | $19.00 (20%) | 71.5% | +$33.60 per order (+99%) |
| 25% off | $70.50 | $23.50 (25%) | 69.6% | +$29.10 per order (+86%) |

Decision: Price at **$75.00** (20% off). The round number is psychologically clean, the savings of $19 is motivating, and blended margin of 71.5% is well above the 55% floor.

**Step 3 -- Perceived Value**:
- Bundle name: **"The Morning Glow Kit"**
- Bonus item: A reusable bamboo face cloth (cost: $1.40, perceived value: $8-12). Adds tactile unboxing appeal.
- Anchor price display: ~~$94.00~~ **$75.00** -- You Save $19
- Urgency: "Spring Edition -- available through June 15"
- Packaging: Custom sleeve with morning routine instructions printed on the inside.

**Step 4 -- Cannibalization Check**:
Current monthly solo Vitamin C Serum orders: 1,800 (margin: $33.80 each = $60,840/month).

| Scenario | Solo Serum Units | Bundle Units | Total Monthly Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 1,800 | 0 | $60,840 |
| Conservative (15% switch, 12% net new) | 1,530 | 486 | $51,714 + $26,049 = $77,763 |
| Worst case (25% switch, 0% net new) | 1,350 | 450 | $45,630 + $24,120 = $69,750 |

Even the worst case adds $8,910/month (+14.6%). Bundle is approved.

**Result**: After 30 days, the Morning Glow Kit generated 512 orders, pushed AOV to $61.40 for bundle purchasers, and solo serum sales declined only 11% (below the 15% conservative estimate). Repeat purchase rate for bundle buyers was 34% at 60 days vs. 22% for serum-only buyers.

---

### Example 2: Electronics "Home Office Essentials" Bundle

**Context**: A marketplace seller of electronics accessories has an AOV of $27 and wants to cross $40. Top seller is a USB-C hub ($34.99) with 2,100 units/month.

**Step 1 -- Affinity Data**:
Analysis of 18,700 orders over 90 days:

| SKU Pair | Co-purchase Count | Lift | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| USB-C Hub + Laptop Stand | 1,240 | 3.8 | Hub first 68% |
| USB-C Hub + Desk Cable Organizer | 890 | 2.9 | Hub first 74% |
| Laptop Stand + Wireless Mouse Pad | 670 | 2.3 | Stand first 61% |
| USB-C Hub + USB-C to HDMI Cable | 1,580 | 4.2 | Hub first 81% |

The highest-lift practical bundle: USB-C Hub + Laptop Stand + Desk Cable Organizer. The HDMI cable has higher lift but is a low-price item ($9.99) that does not move the AOV needle enough.

**Step 2 -- Margin Analysis**:

| SKU | Retail Price | Landed Cost | Marketplace Fee (15%) | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USB-C Hub (7-port) | $34.99 | $11.20 | $5.25 | 52.9% |
| Aluminum Laptop Stand | $29.99 | $8.50 | $4.50 | 56.7% |
| Desk Cable Organizer | $14.99 | $3.10 | $2.25 | 64.2% |
| **Sum if separate** | **$79.97** | **$22.80** | **$12.00** | **56.5%** |

Note: Marketplace fee applies to the bundle selling price, which improves margin slightly at the bundle discount.

| Discount Tier | Bundle Price | Marketplace Fee | Blended Net Margin | Incremental Margin vs. Solo Hub |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% off | $67.97 | $10.20 | 51.5% | +$16.17 per order (+87%) |
| 20% off | $63.99 | $9.60 | 49.3% | +$12.79 per order (+69%) |
| 25% off | $59.99 | $9.00 | 47.0% | +$9.39 per order (+51%) |

Decision: Price at **$59.99** (25% off, or effectively $20 savings). On marketplaces, the higher discount is needed to stand out in search results and compete with other bundle listings. Net margin of 47% is healthy for the category.

**Step 3 -- Perceived Value**:
- Bundle name: **"Home Office Essentials Kit"**
- Bonus item: Velcro cable ties (10-pack), cost $0.60, perceived value $5-7.
- Listing title: "Home Office Essentials Kit -- USB-C Hub + Laptop Stand + Cable Organizer | Save $20"
- Main image: All three products arranged on a clean desk with a laptop, showing the "after" state.
- A+ Content / Enhanced Brand Content: Side-by-side "Without kit" (messy desk) vs. "With kit" (organized workspace).

**Step 4 -- Cannibalization Check**:
Current monthly solo USB-C Hub orders: 2,100 (net margin: $18.54 each = $38,934/month).

| Scenario | Solo Hub Units | Bundle Units | Total Monthly Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 2,100 | 0 | $38,934 |
| Conservative (10% switch, 15% net new) | 1,890 | 525 | $35,041 + $14,752 = $49,793 |
| Worst case (20% switch, 5% net new) | 1,680 | 525 | $31,147 + $14,752 = $45,899 |

Worst case still adds $6,965/month (+17.9%). Approved.

**Step 5 -- Merchandising**:
- Created a virtual bundle listing on the marketplace with all three ASINs.
- Set up a 10% coupon clip on the bundle listing page for the first 7 days to boost initial velocity and reviews.
- Added "Frequently Bought Together" manual overrides pointing component listings to the bundle.
- Launched Sponsored Brands ad targeting "home office setup" and "desk organization" keywords with the bundle as hero.

**Result**: After 45 days, the bundle sold 1,340 units, AOV for bundle sessions was $59.99 (vs. $27 baseline), and the USB-C Hub solo sales dropped only 6%. The bundle reached page 1 for "home office kit" within 21 days due to combined keyword relevance. Return rate was 4.2% vs. 3.8% for solo hub -- within acceptable range.

---

## Common Mistakes

### 1. Bundling products with no purchase affinity
Combining a phone case and a kitchen timer because both have excess inventory creates a "junk drawer" bundle no customer wants. Always start with co-purchase data, not inventory problems.

### 2. Discounting the hero SKU instead of the add-on
If your anchor product (the reason people come to your store) is discounted heavily, you reset its price perception. Instead, keep the anchor at or near full price and apply the discount to the secondary items. Customers mentally anchor to the anchor price.

### 3. Setting the discount too deep to "guarantee" sales
A 40% bundle discount might move units, but it trains customers to never buy components individually. Keep discounts between 15-25% for DTC and 20-30% for marketplace. If you need deeper than 30%, the bundle composition is wrong.

### 4. Ignoring inventory velocity mismatches
If SKU A sells 2,000 units/month and SKU B sells 200, creating a 1:1 bundle means either over-ordering B or under-promoting the bundle. Match bundle velocity to the slower component's supply capacity, or adjust the ratio (e.g., 1 unit of A + 3 units of B consumables).

### 5. Skipping the cannibalization model
Launching without a cannibalization forecast means you cannot distinguish "the bundle grew the pie" from "the bundle just shifted existing sales to a lower margin." Always run the scenario table in Step 4 before launch.

### 6. Creating a bundle page with no standalone visibility
Burying the bundle behind a cross-sell widget means only existing visitors see it. Bundles need their own PDP, their own SEO, and their own ad spend to attract net-new traffic.

### 7. Forgetting fulfillment complexity
A bundle with components from three different warehouse zones increases pick/pack cost by $1.50-3.00. Factor kitting costs into the margin model. Pre-kitting (assembling bundles in advance) is cheaper but ties up inventory.

### 8. Not testing bundle page conversion independently
Comparing bundle conversion to site-wide conversion is misleading because bundle traffic has different intent. A/B test the bundle page itself: test price points, bonus items, imagery, and urgency framing against each other.

### 9. Treating bundles as permanent fixtures
Bundles lose urgency and novelty over time. Rotate bundle compositions quarterly. Evergreen bundles (like "Starter Kit") can persist, but seasonal and thematic bundles should have explicit end dates.

### 10. Neglecting post-purchase bundle analytics
Track what bundle buyers do next. Do they reorder individual components? Do they buy the next bundle? If bundle buyers have lower LTV than solo buyers, your bundle is attracting deal-seekers, not loyal customers. Adjust targeting accordingly.

---

## Resources

- [Output Template](references/output-template.md) -- Structured template for documenting a complete bundle strategy deliverable.
- [Pricing Psychology Guide](references/pricing-psychology-guide.md) -- Deep dive into anchoring, framing, decoy pricing, and charm pricing for bundles.
- [Margin Analysis Framework](references/margin-analysis-framework.md) -- Step-by-step framework for modeling bundle margins, break-even points, and cannibalization risk.
- [Bundle Strategy Checklist](assets/bundle-strategy-checklist.md) -- Pre-launch quality checklist covering 45+ items across 8 categories.