Ad Budget Allocator

SKILL.md

---
name: aes-ad-budget-allocator
description: Distribute advertising budget across channels and campaigns based on ROAS targets, funnel stage, and seasonality.
---

# Ad Budget Allocator

Most ecommerce sellers either spread their advertising budget evenly across channels or dump everything into whichever platform performed best last month. Both approaches leave money on the table. This skill builds a structured budget allocation framework that distributes your total ad spend across channels (Google Ads, Meta, TikTok Ads, Amazon PPC, Pinterest), campaign types (prospecting, retargeting, brand defense), and time periods based on your ROAS targets, funnel stage priorities, seasonal demand patterns, and current performance data.

## Use when

- A seller says "I have a monthly ad budget of 10,000 dollars but I do not know how to split it between Google Shopping, Meta Ads, and TikTok Ads" and needs a data-driven allocation model rather than guesswork
- An ecommerce manager asks "should I spend more on prospecting or retargeting this quarter" and needs a framework that balances customer acquisition cost against lifetime value targets across funnel stages
- A brand team is planning for a major sales event like Black Friday, Prime Day, or a TikTok Shop mega sale and needs to reallocate their normal budget distribution to account for increased CPMs, higher conversion rates, and compressed decision windows
- A DTC founder wants to understand which ad channels are delivering diminishing returns and where incremental budget would generate the highest marginal ROAS based on current campaign performance curves

## What this skill does

This skill takes your total advertising budget, current channel-level performance metrics, business goals, and seasonal context to produce a detailed budget allocation plan. It models expected returns across channels using your historical ROAS data and category benchmarks, identifies diminishing-return thresholds where additional spend in a channel yields declining marginal returns, and recommends optimal splits by channel, campaign type, and weekly or monthly time period. The allocation accounts for funnel coverage to ensure you are investing appropriately in awareness, consideration, and conversion stages. It also flags budget concentration risks where over-reliance on a single channel creates vulnerability to algorithm changes or CPM spikes, and suggests diversification moves with expected impact ranges.

## Inputs required

- **Total monthly or quarterly ad budget** (required): Your total available spend for the period, e.g. "8,500 dollars per month" or "30,000 dollars for Q3." This sets the total pool to allocate across channels and campaigns.
- **Current channels and performance metrics** (required): Which platforms you are running ads on and their recent performance, e.g. "Google Shopping: 4.2x ROAS on 3,000/mo spend; Meta Advantage+: 2.8x ROAS on 2,500/mo; TikTok In-Feed: 1.9x ROAS on 1,500/mo." This provides the baseline for optimization.
- **Primary business goal** (required): What you are optimizing for this period, e.g. "maximize total revenue," "acquire 500 new customers under 25 dollar CAC," or "maintain 3x blended ROAS while scaling spend 40 percent." This determines the objective function for the allocation model.
- **Product category and average order value** (required): Your niche and typical transaction size, e.g. "premium pet food, 65 dollar AOV." This calibrates benchmark expectations and funnel stage recommendations.
- **Upcoming seasonal events or promotions** (optional): Any sales events, product launches, or seasonal demand shifts in the planning period, e.g. "Prime Day in July, new product launch August 15." This triggers budget reweighting recommendations for peak periods.
- **Customer lifetime value estimate** (optional): Your estimated LTV or repeat purchase rate, e.g. "average customer orders 2.3 times with 140 dollar LTV." This enables the model to justify higher acquisition costs where LTV supports it.

## Output format

The output is a comprehensive budget allocation document with five sections. First, a Channel Allocation Summary table showing each channel, its recommended monthly spend amount and percentage of total budget, expected ROAS range, and the strategic rationale for the allocation level. Second, a Campaign Type Breakdown within each channel, splitting spend between prospecting, retargeting, brand defense, and any channel-specific campaign types like Amazon Sponsored Brands or Meta Advantage+ Shopping with spend amounts and expected contribution. Third, a Seasonal Adjustment Calendar showing week-by-week or month-by-month budget shifts with specific percentage increases or decreases tied to identified events, CPM trend forecasts, and demand signals. Fourth, a Diminishing Returns Analysis that identifies the estimated saturation point for each channel and recommends maximum efficient spend levels beyond which marginal ROAS drops below your target threshold. Fifth, a Risk and Diversification Assessment flagging channel concentration risks and recommending test budgets for underexplored channels with suggested initial spend levels and success criteria for scaling.

## Scope

- Designed for: ecommerce operators, paid media managers, DTC brand founders, performance marketing teams
- Platform context: Google Ads, Meta Ads, TikTok Ads, Amazon PPC, Pinterest Ads, platform-agnostic frameworks
- Language: English

## Limitations

- Budget recommendations are based on your reported metrics and category benchmarks, not live API data from your ad accounts; actual performance may vary from projections
- Diminishing return curves use general ecommerce models and your reported data points rather than full econometric modeling of your specific account history
- Does not execute any ad platform changes or automate budget adjustments; outputs a strategic plan for manual or tool-assisted implementation